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Black voters are also ‘suburban’ voters
Jonathan Capehart | April 9, 2020 There are words and phrases used as shorthand in politics and journalism that are meant to paint an enormous picture in the mind of readers and voters. “Urban voters” is synonymous with African Americans. “Working-class voters,” “blue-collar voters,” “upper-middle-class voters” and “suburban voters” all conjure up the image of white…
Read MoreLGBTQ voters turned out in record numbers on Super Tuesday
That’s why the Human Rights Campaign began working with data analytics firm Catalist in 2016 to identify 57 million “equality voters” who care deeply about LGBTQ equality.
Read MoreDo Democrats Need a Progressive to Excite the Base?
Most notably, for all the talk of how a Democratic nominee must drive voter turnout, the Democrats who flipped seats in 2018 did so primarily by winning back votes rather than by turning out new voters. According to the data firm Catalist, even though there were 14.4 million new voters in 2018 who supported Democrats by a 60 percent to percent margin, changing voter choice accounted for 4.5 percent of the 5.0 percent shift in Democrat’s favor from 2016 to 2018. In other words, Trump voters who supported Democrats in 2018 were 90 percent responsible for the blue wave while increased turnout was 10 percent responsible. Why shouldn’t Democrats try to follow the same path to success in 2020?
Read MoreAre Blue-Collar White Women Trump’s Red Wall?
They’re the one group whose support for impeachment isn’t growing. Anne Kim | October 25, 2019 Despite a nonstop onslaught of fresh and damning revelations about his misconduct in office, President Donald Trump has so far maintained his core supporters’ loyalty. As of the start of this week, Trump’s average approval rating holds at 42 percent—only slightly…
Read MoreWhy Political Pundits Are Obsessed with Hidden Moderates
A recent study by the data firm Catalist suggests that liberals made up a disproportionate share of the turnout increase, even in Repubican-leaning and swing districts. The study found that the 2018 electorate looked much more like the electorate in a presidential year than a typical midterm (in other words, more liberal) and that “young voters and voters of color, particularly Latinx voters, were a substantially larger share of the electorate than in past midterms.”
Read MoreJust How Many Swing Voters Are There?
Catalist, a Democratic data firm, recently found that the shifts in vote margin from 2012 to 2016 in many swing states were predominantly driven by changes in vote choice rather than changes in turnout. According to their analysis, the change in vote margin in the three key states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin could mostly be explained by people shifting which party they voted for, rather than by changes in turnout.
Read MoreThe debate over swing voters versus mobilizing the base, explained
Yair Ghitza of the Democratic data firm Catalist estimates that while Democrats did make significant turnout-related gains in 2018, about 89 percent of their improvement vote margin is attributable to swing voting.
Read MoreDemocrats, Stop Obsessing Over Base Turnout. Remember 2018?
Lanae Erickson | September 10, 2019 For years, left-wing candidates and pundits have complained that the big problem with the Democratic Party is that it just doesn’t energize progressives. The argument goes like this: If you nominate a self-described socialist or a true champion of far-left policies, you’ll mobilize a hidden treasure trove of progressive voters who…
Read MoreWant to beat Trump in 2020? Register people to vote.
Greg Sargent | July 9, 2019 A new Washington Post/ABC News poll released over the weekend pointed toward a scenario in which President Trump could win reelection despite his deep and enduring unpopularity. The poll showed that all of the top-tier Democratic candidates defeat Trump in head-to-head matchups by sizable margins among all U.S. adults. But among registered voters,…
Read MoreBrace for a Voter-Turnout Tsunami
In a recent paper, the Democratic voter-targeting firm Catalist projected that about 156 million people could vote in 2020, an enormous increase from the 139 million who cast ballots in 2016.
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