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Rumblings from Trump’s base could shape Democrats’ choice for 2020
Detailed new research by the Democratic voter-targeting firm Catalist found that the party’s big gains in the 2018 congressional election were fueled not only by unusually high turnout among voters sympathetic to the party, but also by larger-than-expected defections from the GOP among voters who had backed Trump two years earlier.
Read MoreHere’s What Powered the Democratic Win in 2018
Yair Ghitza at Catalist has a detailed look at the 2018 election that’s been updated with lots of new data. One of the things he looks at is the long-running question of how important turnout is compared to changing minds.
Read MoreA blueprint for Democratic victory in the South
According to Catalist, a progressive data firm, the campaign’s focus on voters of color gave Abrams huge support with black Georgians in 2018, and they turned out at or near presidential levels, with Abrams winning 95 percent of their votes. Hispanic and Asian turnout, although a much smaller share of the electorate, also looked more like a presidential election than a midterm. In 2014, they made up only 3 percent of the electorate, but in 2018, they doubled to 6 percent of the total electorate. Abrams won these groups by margins of 40 and 31 points respectively.
Read MoreThe demographic surges that spurred 2018′s heavy turnout
Philip Bump | November 13, 2018 On any Election Day, the first analyses of turnout are anecdotal. Long lines at particular places. Commentary from poll workers about how the turnout looks relative to prior years. Stories of unexpectedly long lines or the unexpected absence of same. As with any similar reporting, caution is warranted in…
Read MoreWhy the 2018 Midterms May Have Been Bluer Than You Think
The wave looks like it was real, even in places where the candidates didn’t win. Andrew Gelman | November 12, 2018 What can we really learn from what happened in the 2018 midterm elections? When we talk about election results, we’re always discussing them on three levels: their direct political consequences, their implications for future…
Read MoreThe 2018 electorate was older, whiter, and better educated than in 2016
Democrats hit some of their GOTV targets but missed others. Matthew Yglesias | November 12, 2018 A picture of the people who voted in the 2018 midterms is starting to emerge, and it offers a template for who Democrats will need to reach ahead of 2020. Exit polls found that voters were younger and less…
Read MoreThe early vote suggests minority turnout will be high in 2018, but so will turnout among whites
Bernard Fraga and Brian Schaffner | November 1, 2018 The expansion of early voting has not only made it more convenient for Americans to cast their ballots, but it has also become a tempting source of data to try to predict what might happen once the dust has settled on election night. In 2016, our analysis of the early vote was fairly…
Read MoreRace was the biggest factor in 2016 — but economics is still Democrats’ winning message
This metric was developed by the political data firm Catalist. The idea is that when you vote, it doesn’t matter whether other people think you’re financially comfortable; what matters is the pressure you feel.
Read MoreStudies: Democratic politicians represent middle-class voters. GOP politicians don’t.
Political scientists are finding an alarming pattern. Dylan Matthews | April 2, 2018 If you think American politics is a rigged shell game, where the views of the rich and powerful count but those of regular Americans don’t, then two prominent political scientists agree with you. Three years ago, Martin Gilens of UCLA and Benjamin…
Read MoreWhy did Trump win? More whites – and fewer blacks – actually voted.
Bernard L. Fraga, Sean McElwee, Jesse Rhodes, and Brian Schnaffer | May 8, 2017 Why did Trump win — and Clinton lose — the 2016 U.S. presidential election? That’s been debated widely, to understate the case. Nominees include each campaign’s ground game, messaging, FBI Director James B. Comey’s last-minute letter to Congress, and defections from the “Obama coalition.” Here, we offer new data to…
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