Posts Tagged ‘2018’
The demographic surges that spurred 2018′s heavy turnout
Philip Bump | November 13, 2018 On any Election Day, the first analyses of turnout are anecdotal. Long lines at particular places. Commentary from poll workers about how the turnout looks relative to prior years. Stories of unexpectedly long lines or the unexpected absence of same. As with any similar reporting, caution is warranted in…
Read MoreWhy the 2018 Midterms May Have Been Bluer Than You Think
The wave looks like it was real, even in places where the candidates didn’t win. Andrew Gelman | November 12, 2018 What can we really learn from what happened in the 2018 midterm elections? When we talk about election results, we’re always discussing them on three levels: their direct political consequences, their implications for future…
Read MoreThe 2018 electorate was older, whiter, and better educated than in 2016
Democrats hit some of their GOTV targets but missed others. Matthew Yglesias | November 12, 2018 A picture of the people who voted in the 2018 midterms is starting to emerge, and it offers a template for who Democrats will need to reach ahead of 2020. Exit polls found that voters were younger and less…
Read MoreThe early vote suggests minority turnout will be high in 2018, but so will turnout among whites
Bernard Fraga and Brian Schaffner | November 1, 2018 The expansion of early voting has not only made it more convenient for Americans to cast their ballots, but it has also become a tempting source of data to try to predict what might happen once the dust has settled on election night. In 2016, our analysis of the early vote was fairly…
Read MoreRace was the biggest factor in 2016 — but economics is still Democrats’ winning message
This metric was developed by the political data firm Catalist. The idea is that when you vote, it doesn’t matter whether other people think you’re financially comfortable; what matters is the pressure you feel.
Read MoreWhy Clinton Might Have A Tough Time Flipping The Sanders Holdouts
Harry Enten | July 25, 2016 PHILADELPHIA — Hillary Clinton is coming into her convention with a real problem. Even before WikiLeaks released thousands of Democratic National Committee emails, including some that suggested officials were actively working against Bernie Sanders, Clinton had about a third of Sanders supporters left to try to win over. The emails have exacerbated tensions…
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