Alex Roarty | September 14, 2020 Generation Z loathes him. Millennials overwhelmingly back his opponent. And even once-supportive seniors have turned away. As his turbulent re-election bid enters its final phase, President Donald Trump has been hindered by lackluster approval from most generations of voters — with one important exception. In poll after poll of…

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Turnout among all groups tends to rise and fall together. Robert Griffin | September 4, 2020 The lead that former vice president Joe Biden has held over President Trump since he became the presumptive Democratic nominee — confirmed this past week in a number of high-quality post-convention polls — has been almost shockingly stable, given the pandemic,…

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The Atlantic

Education remains the most important dividing line in America. Ronald Brownstein | May 21, 2020 For all the focus on the gender gap, the diploma divide over Donald Trump is looming as an even greater factor in the 2020 presidential race—just as it was in 2016. Amid the coronavirus outbreak, women generally express more financial…

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Human Rights Campaign

Lucas Acosta | March 9, 2020 Today, HRC released its March Voter Snapshot giving insight into the power of LGBTQ and Equality Voters in the remaining March primary and caucus states. Click here for the March State Voter Snapshot So far this primary season, LGBTQ voters have turned out in record numbers. In early states like New…

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Washington Monthly

Most notably, for all the talk of how a Democratic nominee must drive voter turnout, the Democrats who flipped seats in 2018 did so primarily by winning back votes rather than by turning out new voters. According to the data firm Catalist, even though there were 14.4 million new voters in 2018 who supported Democrats by a 60 percent to percent margin, changing voter choice accounted for 4.5 percent of the 5.0 percent shift in Democrat’s favor from 2016 to 2018. In other words, Trump voters who supported Democrats in 2018 were 90 percent responsible for the blue wave while increased turnout was 10 percent responsible. Why shouldn’t Democrats try to follow the same path to success in 2020?

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A recent study by the data firm Catalist suggests that liberals made up a disproportionate share of the turnout increase, even in Repubican-leaning and swing districts. The study found that the 2018 electorate looked much more like the electorate in a presidential year than a typical midterm (in other words, more liberal) and that “young voters and voters of color, particularly Latinx voters, were a substantially larger share of the electorate than in past midterms.”

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Five Thirty Eight

Catalist, a Democratic data firm, recently found that the shifts in vote margin from 2012 to 2016 in many swing states were predominantly driven by changes in vote choice rather than changes in turnout. According to their analysis, the change in vote margin in the three key states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin could mostly be explained by people shifting which party they voted for, rather than by changes in turnout.

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Lanae Erickson | September 10, 2019 For years, left-wing candidates and pundits have complained that the big problem with the Democratic Party is that it just doesn’t energize progressives. The argument goes like this: If you nominate a self-described socialist or a true champion of far-left policies, you’ll mobilize a hidden treasure trove of progressive voters who…

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