Posts Tagged ‘2020 Election’
Could the parents of LGBTQ kids decide the presidential election? Advocates say yes.
Kate Sosin | September 17, 2020 This story was published in partnership with The 19th, a nonprofit, nonpartisan newsroom reporting on gender, politics and policy. LGBTQ voters are becoming an increasingly key constituency for presidential candidates. On Super Tuesday, 10% of voters identified as queer, a marked jump from the 6% recorded in the 2018 midterms. But it isn’t just…
Read MoreMillennials and seniors are spurning Trump. Here’s why middle-aged voters are sticking with him.
Alex Roarty | September 14, 2020 Generation Z loathes him. Millennials overwhelmingly back his opponent. And even once-supportive seniors have turned away. As his turbulent re-election bid enters its final phase, President Donald Trump has been hindered by lackluster approval from most generations of voters — with one important exception. In poll after poll of…
Read MoreHigh turnout among his base is unlikely to save Trump
Turnout among all groups tends to rise and fall together. Robert Griffin | September 4, 2020 The lead that former vice president Joe Biden has held over President Trump since he became the presumptive Democratic nominee — confirmed this past week in a number of high-quality post-convention polls — has been almost shockingly stable, given the pandemic,…
Read MoreHow young black voters could break Biden — and why Democrats are worried
Police brutality has spurred young African Americans to take to the streets. But it’s far from clear they’ll go to the polls. ELENA SCHNEIDER and LAURA BARRÓN-LÓPEZ | 06/05/2020 In late January, Black Lives Matter commissioned eight focus groups of young black voters in swing states to drill down on a problem for Democrats since Barack Obama…
Read MoreThe Pandemic Hasn’t Changed Voters’ Minds About Trump
Education remains the most important dividing line in America. Ronald Brownstein | May 21, 2020 For all the focus on the gender gap, the diploma divide over Donald Trump is looming as an even greater factor in the 2020 presidential race—just as it was in 2016. Amid the coronavirus outbreak, women generally express more financial…
Read MoreHRC Releases March Voter Snapshot
Lucas Acosta | March 9, 2020 Today, HRC released its March Voter Snapshot giving insight into the power of LGBTQ and Equality Voters in the remaining March primary and caucus states. Click here for the March State Voter Snapshot So far this primary season, LGBTQ voters have turned out in record numbers. In early states like New…
Read MoreDo Democrats Need a Progressive to Excite the Base?
Most notably, for all the talk of how a Democratic nominee must drive voter turnout, the Democrats who flipped seats in 2018 did so primarily by winning back votes rather than by turning out new voters. According to the data firm Catalist, even though there were 14.4 million new voters in 2018 who supported Democrats by a 60 percent to percent margin, changing voter choice accounted for 4.5 percent of the 5.0 percent shift in Democrat’s favor from 2016 to 2018. In other words, Trump voters who supported Democrats in 2018 were 90 percent responsible for the blue wave while increased turnout was 10 percent responsible. Why shouldn’t Democrats try to follow the same path to success in 2020?
Read MoreWhy Political Pundits Are Obsessed with Hidden Moderates
A recent study by the data firm Catalist suggests that liberals made up a disproportionate share of the turnout increase, even in Repubican-leaning and swing districts. The study found that the 2018 electorate looked much more like the electorate in a presidential year than a typical midterm (in other words, more liberal) and that “young voters and voters of color, particularly Latinx voters, were a substantially larger share of the electorate than in past midterms.”
Read MoreJust How Many Swing Voters Are There?
Catalist, a Democratic data firm, recently found that the shifts in vote margin from 2012 to 2016 in many swing states were predominantly driven by changes in vote choice rather than changes in turnout. According to their analysis, the change in vote margin in the three key states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin could mostly be explained by people shifting which party they voted for, rather than by changes in turnout.
Read MoreThe debate over swing voters versus mobilizing the base, explained
Yair Ghitza of the Democratic data firm Catalist estimates that while Democrats did make significant turnout-related gains in 2018, about 89 percent of their improvement vote margin is attributable to swing voting.
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