Jonathan Capehart | April 9, 2020 There are words and phrases used as shorthand in politics and journalism that are meant to paint an enormous picture in the mind of readers and voters. “Urban voters” is synonymous with African Americans. “Working-class voters,” “blue-collar voters,” “upper-middle-class voters” and “suburban voters” all conjure up the image of white…

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Washington Monthly

They’re the one group whose support for impeachment isn’t growing. Anne Kim | October 25, 2019 Despite a nonstop onslaught of fresh and damning revelations about his misconduct in office, President Donald Trump has so far maintained his core supporters’ loyalty. As of the start of this week, Trump’s average approval rating holds at 42 percent—only slightly…

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The Hill

According to Catalist, a progressive data firm, the campaign’s focus on voters of color gave Abrams huge support with black Georgians in 2018, and they turned out at or near presidential levels, with Abrams winning 95 percent of their votes. Hispanic and Asian turnout, although a much smaller share of the electorate, also looked more like a presidential election than a midterm. In 2014, they made up only 3 percent of the electorate, but in 2018, they doubled to 6 percent of the total electorate. Abrams won these groups by margins of 40 and 31 points respectively.

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Philip Bump | November 13, 2018 On any Election Day, the first analyses of turnout are anecdotal. Long lines at particular places. Commentary from poll workers about how the turnout looks relative to prior years. Stories of unexpectedly long lines or the unexpected absence of same. As with any similar reporting, caution is warranted in…

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Bernard L. Fraga, Sean McElwee, Jesse Rhodes, and Brian Schnaffer | May 8, 2017 Why did Trump win — and Clinton lose — the 2016 U.S. presidential election? That’s been debated widely, to understate the case. Nominees include each campaign’s ground game, messaging, FBI Director James B. Comey’s last-minute letter to Congress, and defections from the “Obama coalition.” Here, we offer new data to…

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