What Happened™ in 2022
Constituency Reports: AAPI Voters
Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders (AAPI) are a rapidly growing and diversifying group in the United States and their voter engagement and participation have kept pace with this extraordinary growth. AAPI communities comprise a rapidly expanding share of registrants and voters and continue to support Democratic candidates at high rates. In a warning sign, however, Democratic support among AAPI voters declined between the 2020 Presidential election and the 2022 midterms nationally and in states with highly contested Senate and Gubernatorial races. Although our estimates suggest the decline was considerably smaller in highly contested states than nationally, there is greater uncertainty around shifts in highly contested 2022 states because of the relatively small share of the electorate in these states comprised of AAPI voters.
What Happened 2022 Report Series
Table 1. Share of Electorate and Democratic Support by Race
| House: National | Senate/Gov: Highly Contested | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percent of Voters | Dem Support (Two-Way) | Percent of Voters | Dem Support (Two-Way) | |||||||||
| Group | 2018 | 2022 | 2018 to 2022 | Pres 2020 | 2022 | 2020 to 2022 | 2018 | 2022 | 2018 to 2022 | Pres 2020 | 2022 | 2020 to 2022 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | +0 | 52 | 49 | -3 | 100 | 100 | +0 | 50 | 51 | +1 |
| White | 75 | 76 | +2 | 44 | 42 | -2 | 79 | 79 | +0 | 42 | 44 | +2 |
| Black | 12 | 10 | -1 | 91 | 88 | -3 | 12 | 11 | -1 | 92 | 91 | -1 |
| Hispanic/Latino | 9 | 8 | -0 | 62 | 62 | +1 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 61 | 62 | +1 |
| AAPI | 4 | 4 | +0 | 66 | 59 | -7 | 2 | 2 | +0 | 63 | 61 | -2 |
| Other | 2 | 2 | +0 | -- | -- | -- | 2 | 2 | +0 | -- | -- | -- |
AAPI registered voters have grown sharply as a share of all registered voters from 2014 to 2022, mirroring their population growth. These changes also reflect relatively high registration and turnout rates in recent elections, with AAPI turnout in 2022 notably remaining stable even when compared to the high-salience midterm of 2018. Their vote share nationally was 4 percent in both of the last two midterms. In states with highly contested 2022 Senate and Gubernatorial contests, where there is a relatively lower concentration of AAPI residents, their vote share also remained stable over this period, at 2 percent.
AAPI voters continued to support Democrats at high rates. Both nationally and in highly contested states, about 6 in 10 AAPI voters are estimated to have voted Democratic. Despite being a relatively smaller share of Democrats’ multi-racial coalition than Black, Latino or white voters, in multiple close battleground races, the number of AAPI Democratic voters exceeded the win margins, underscoring the pivotal nature of this constituency.
Nationally, however, Democratic support among AAPI voters declined by 7 percentage points between the 2020 Presidential election and 2022 House contests. Support declines in highly contested states were considerably smaller at an estimated 2 points. Our estimates also suggest that decreases in Democratic support were smaller among young AAPI voters and among AAPI voters in states with highly contested Senate and Gubernatorial elections.
Finally, the composition of the AAPI electorate shifted along some demographic dimensions and remained stable along others across the last three midterm elections. Relative to 2014 and 2018, the 2022 AAPI electorate included slightly higher shares of Gen Z and Millennial voters, non-married voters, and suburban voters. Over this same period the composition of the AAPI electorate remained stable by gender and educational attainment.
This report examines in close detail levels and trends across recent election cycles in registration, vote share, support, and vote method among AAPI voters, breaking out these topics by state and sub-constituency as relevant to illuminate key findings.
House vote and Heavily Contested vs. Less Contested Statewide Races
Normally, midterm elections involve a national swing in one direction, usually against an incumbent party. But in 2022, with Democrats overperformed in states with heavily contested statewide elections. Catalist’s analysis calculates modeled support for House races, which largely reflect national trends, as well as top-of-ticket statewide races for governor and Senate. Using the Cook Political Report's pre-election rating of races as Toss-Up or Lean, heavily contested races include 64 House races; Senate races in Arizona, Georgia, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and Gubernatorial races in Arizona, Georgia, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon and Wisconsin. Read more in the Catalist constituency report Data Guide.
Data Guide
Catalist’s What Happened 2022 Constituency Report Data Guide includes definitions, method and other important information about these reports.
Voter Registration
AAPI communities were the fastest-growing racial or ethnic group in the United States, from about 10 million in 2000 to about 23 million in 2022. AAPI registration has also grown rapidly. The number of AAPI registrants increased from 6.6 million in 2014 to 10 million in 2022, a net increase of around 3.5 million potential voters and a growth of about 150%. Growth in AAPI registration outpaced overall registration trends and the AAPI share of all registrants grew from 3.5% in 2014 to 4.6% in 2022.
We can disaggregate cross-cycle registration increases into new registrant gains and dropped registrant losses. Trends in new registrations further substantiate the fast-growing nature of the registered AAPI population. The 2016 and 2020 Presidential election cycles especially saw spikes in new AAPI registrants, but midterm election cycles also produced steady increases in registration among potential AAPI voters. The number of new AAPI registrants increased from 0.7 million between 2012 and 2014 to 1.1 million between 2020 and 2022. On the other hand, 600,000 AAPI registered voters dropped off the rolls between the 2020 Presidential election and the 2022 midterms, representing 5.9% of all AAPI registered voters in 2022. However, the number of AAPI registrants dropped in each midterm election cycle remained stable in absolute terms between 2014 and 2022 and decreased as a share of dropped registrants over this same period. These drops include registrants moving or passing away, as well as registrants who are removed from voter rolls, usually due to inactivity.
Table 2. Trends in AAPI Voter Registration
| 2014 | 2016 | 2018 | 2020 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPI Registrants | 6.6M | 7.6M | 8.2M | 9.5M | 10.0M |
| AAPI Registrant Share | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.6% |
| New AAPI Registrants | 0.7M | 1.5M | 1.2M | 1.8M | 1.1M |
| New AAPI Registrant Share | 10.0% | 19.6% | 14.2% | 19.2% | 10.7% |
| Dropped AAPI Registrants | 0.5M | 0.5M | 0.5M | 0.5M | 0.6M |
| Dropped AAPI Registrant Share | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.9% |
Levels of AAPI registration vary across states, largely in proportion to the size of the AAPI population. Among the states with highly contested Senate or Gubernatorial elections in 2022, AAPI registrant shares were highest in Nevada, comprising 9% of that state’s registrants, but were relatively low in other states.
Figure 1. AAPI Registrants as a Share of Total Registrants by State, 2022
After Republican-appointed justices on the Supreme Court overturned long-standing abortion rights over the summer, Catalist’s national What Happened report found that there was a spike of women registrants, indicating that the decision played an important role in shaping the 2022 electorate. This spike in registrations was not isolated to one racial group but instead unfolded across groups, including among AAPI women registrants. Normally, new registrations would be relatively evenly split between men and women, but AAPI women continued to register at relatively higher rates than AAPI men throughout the cycle.
Figure 2. Percent of Voter Registrations by AAPI Women Compared to all Women, 2022
The increase in women registrants was especially concentrated among young women. The share of all registrants composed of young AAPI women under the age of 35 increased by 2.7 percentage points between the month preceding and the month following the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs. Among all women under the age of 35, the change was 3.1 percentage points.
General Election Trends
Vote Share
Nationally, the AAPI vote share grew from 3% in 2014 to 4% in 2018 and 2022, spurred both by community growth and surging levels of participation. States with highly contested 2022 Senate or Gubernatorial elections generally had lower AAPI vote shares than nationally. In the highly contested set of states, AAPI vote share grew from 1% in 2014 to 2% in 2018 and 2022.
While AAPI vote share in aggregate remained relatively stable over the past three midterm elections, it increased by a sizable margin in Nevada – the highly contested 2022 state with the largest AAPI population – from 5% in 2014 to 8% in 2022.
Figure 3. AAPI Share of the Electorate Nationally and in Heavily Contested States, 2014-2022
Breaking out 2022 trends by state, AAPI voters comprised the largest share of the electorate in states where their registration shares were the highest. Notably, Nevada is the only highly contested 2022 state with an AAPI vote share higher than the national AAPI vote share of 4% in 2022.
Figure 4. AAPI Share of the Electorate by State, 2022
Most states’ AAPI vote shares in the 2022 midterms were lower than their registration shares though they continued to vote at high rates. Nationally, 43% of the registered AAPI electorate voted in 2022; in highly contested states this figure was 47%. By comparison, the share of overall registrants who voted in 2022 was 51% nationally and 57% in highly contested states. More work remains not only to expand the electorate but also to activate higher participation among AAPI voters.
Support
Compared to other groups, our analysis of AAPI support levels in states with less contested vs. heavily contested elections comes with higher levels of uncertainty because the AAPI population in the subset of heavily contested 2022 states was relatively small. We urge readers to exercise caution in interpreting these results, relying more on the directional nature of support gains and losses and less on the specific magnitude of those movements.
Between the 2020 Presidential election and 2022 House races, national two-way Democratic support among AAPI voters decreased from 66% to 59%. Democratic support among AAPI voters declined less in states with highly contested 2022 Senate and Gubernatorial elections, from 63% support for Biden-Harris in 2020 to 61% support for Democratic candidates in these contested statewide races, with a mix of estimated support drops and estimated support gains across different contests.
Figure 5. AAPI Democratic Support Nationally and in Highly Contested States, 2020-2022
Vote Share and Support by Demographic Subgroups
To explore differences within the AAPI electorate, we consider vote share and Democratic support trends by age, gender, marital status, urbanity, and education.
We encourage readers to refer to the Data Guide associated with each constituency report to explore more about how support is modeled. When interpreting two-way Democratic support, it is important to note that shifts from election to election can result from individuals switching their vote from one party to another as well as compositional changes to the electorate, including Republican or Democratic voters in a subgroup turning out in different numbers from election to election.
While vote share numbers come with relatively high confidence, support numbers come with more uncertainty, particularly at the state and local level and particularly in states with relatively small populations, so support numbers are shared here at an aggregated level.
The composition of the AAPI electorate nationally generally mirrors the breakdown in states with highly contested Senate or Gubernatorial elections in 2022, with a few exceptions. The AAPI electorate in highly contested states is substantially more suburban, slightly younger, and has slightly lower rates of four-year college degree attainment than the AAPI electorate nationally. We highlight these differences where relevant but our visualizations focus on the national shape of the AAPI electorate. By contrast, we show Democratic support changes for each demographic sub-constituency both nationally and in highly contested states.
Age
Younger AAPI voters in the Millennial and Gen Z cohorts sharply grew as a share of the electorate between 2014 and 2022. AAPI voters in the Gen X cohort also slightly grew as a share of the electorate over this period, while the share of the AAPI electorate composed of members of the Baby Boomer, Silent, and Greatest generations decreased. Notably, most of these compositional changes by generation occurred between 2014 and 2018, suggesting the opportunity for continued mobilization of young AAPI voters.
Figure 6. Shape of the AAPI Electorate by Generation, 2014-2022
Nationally, AAPI turnout remained steady between the 2018 “blue wave” election and the 2022 midterms, with approximately 4.3 million AAPI voters turning out in each year. In states with highly contested 2022 Senate and Gubernatorial races, AAPI turnout increased by 13%, from 680,000 AAPI voters in these states in the 2018 midterms to 770,000 in 2022. Note, however, that less than 20% of AAPI voters reside in highly contested 2022 states.
Figure 7a. AAPI Voters in the 2022 Midterms by Birth Year – Nationally
Figure 7b. AAPI Voters in the 2022 Midterms by Birth Year – Highly Contested States 1Note that Figure 7b has a different y-axis scale than Figure 7a to illustrate variation across midterm years within highly contested 2022 states.
Democratic support decreased nationally among all AAPI generations between the 2020 Presidential election and 2022 House races. AAPI Gen Z and Millennial voters saw similar two-way Democratic support between 2020 and 2022 at slightly over 70%. Older generations exhibited sizable decreases in Democratic support between the 2020 Presidential election and 2022 House contests.
States with highly contested 2022 Senate and Gubernatorial races saw smaller decreases in Democratic support between the 2020 Presidential election and these 2022 statewide races for each AAPI generational cohort. However, highly contested 2022 states started with lower levels of Biden/Harris support in 2020 than were seen nationally. As a result, in 2022 support levels for Democratic candidates in highly contested Senate and Gubernatorial races mirrored support levels for Democratic House candidates nationally.
Table 3. Democratic Support Among AAPI Voters by Generation
| House: National | Senate/Gov: Highly Contested | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pres 2020 | 2022 | Diff | Pres 2020 | 2022 | Diff | |
| Gen Z / Millennials | 73 | 71 | -2 | 71 | 70 | -1 |
| Older Generations | 61 | 53 | -8 | 58 | 55 | -3 |
Gender
AAPI women tend to vote at slightly higher rates than AAPI men, which is reflected in their higher vote shares both nationally and in highly contested states. The composition of the AAPI electorate by gender has remained relatively stable since 2014, with women comprising 53% of AAPI voters nationally in 2022 and men comprising 47%.
Figure 8. Shape of the AAPI Electorate by Gender, 2014-2022
Nationally, between the 2020 Presidential and 2022 House contests, Democratic support decreased from 70% to 64% among AAPI women and from 60% to 52% among AAPI men. States with highly contested 2022 Senate and Gubernatorial races saw smaller Democratic support decreases between the 2020 Presidential election and these 2022 statewide races, but as with generational trends highly contested states started from lower 2020 Biden/Harris support levels.
Table 4. Democratic Support Among AAPI Voters by Gender
| House: National | Senate/Gov: Highly Contested | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pres 2020 | 2022 | Diff | Pres 2020 | 2022 | Diff | |
| Female | 70 | 64 | -6 | 68 | 64 | -4 |
| Male | 60 | 52 | -8 | 58 | 56 | -2 |
Marital Status
Single men and women increased as a share of the AAPI electorate between 2014 and 2022, while married men and women decreased as a share of the AAPI electorate over this same period. We are confident in attributing these changes to compositional shifts in the AAPI electorate as opposed to changes in marriage rates — while marriage rates are declining, the trend is very gradual and does not have an outsized impact on recent midterm election years. We are also confident that these changes do not solely reflect participation shifts among young AAPI voters, because slightly less than half of AAPI single voters fell into the Millennial and Gen Z categories in 2022.
Figure 9. Shape of the AAPI Electorate by Marital Status, 2014-2022
Both nationally and in highly contested states, Democratic support declined among all AAPI single and married cohorts between the 2020 presidential election and 2022 midterm contests. However, decreases were larger in magnitude nationally than in highly contested 2022 states. Nationally, married AAPI voters saw a larger decrease in Democratic support, from 61% Biden/Harris support in 2020 to 54% support for Democratic House candidates in 2022. In highly contested states, AAPI married voters experienced a smaller decline, from 58% Biden/Harris support in 2020 to 56% support for Democratic Senate and Gubernatorial candidates in 2022.
Table 5. Democratic Support Among AAPI Voters by Marital Status
| House: National | Senate/Gov: Highly Contested | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pres 2020 | 2022 | Diff | Pres 2020 | 2022 | Diff | |
| Single | 71 | 65 | -5 | 69 | 66 | -3 |
| Married | 61 | 54 | -8 | 58 | 56 | -3 |
Urbanity
The AAPI electorate is mostly concentrated in urban and suburban areas. Between 2014 and 2022, the national AAPI electorate became slightly more suburban, although the magnitude of this shift was smaller than for Hispanic or Black voters. In highly contested 2022 states, the AAPI electorate is especially concentrated in suburban areas. Nationally, just over half of the AAPI electorate was categorized as suburban in 2022, compared to 70 percent in highly contested 2022 states.
Figure 10. Shape of the AAPI Electorate by Urbanity, 2014-2022
Between the 2020 Presidential election and 2022 midterm contests, Democratic support shares decreased the least among urban AAPI voters and the most among suburban/rural AAPI voters both nationally and in highly contested states.
2020 Democratic support levels were also higher among urban AAPI voters and lower among suburban/rural AAPI voters, with Biden/Harris support shares of 71% and 62%, respectively. Within both the urban and suburban/rural AAPI voter groups, decreases in Democratic support were smaller in magnitude between the 2020 Presidential election and highly contested 2022 Senate and Gubernatorial contests than between the 2020 Presidential election and all 2022 House races.
Table 6: Democratic Support Among AAPI Voters by Urbanity
| House: National | Senate/Gov: Highly Contested | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pres 2020 | 2022 | Diff | Pres 2020 | 2022 | Diff | |
| Urban | 71 | 67 | -4 | 69 | 69 | +0 |
| Suburban / Rural | 62 | 53 | -9 | 61 | 58 | -3 |
Education
The share of AAPI voters with four-year college degrees remained consistent between 2014 and 2022, both nationally and among highly contested states. Nationally, in 2022 51% of AAPI voters had four-year college degrees. In highly contested states this figure was slightly lower, at 48%.
Figure 11. Shape of the AAPI Electorate by Education, 2014-2022
Nationally, AAPI voters with and without four-year college degrees both saw 6 to 7 percentage point decreases in Democratic support between the 2020 Presidential election and 2022 House races. In states with highly contested Senate and Gubernatorial contests, Democratic support losses between the 2020 Presidential election and these 2022 statewide races were smaller in magnitude but started from lower 2020 Biden/Harris support levels.
Table 7. Democratic Support Among AAPI Voters by Education
| House: National | Senate/Gov: Highly Contested | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pres 2020 | 2022 | Diff | Pres 2020 | 2022 | Diff | |
| Non-College | 64 | 57 | -7 | 62 | 60 | -2 |
| College | 67 | 61 | -6 | 65 | 61 | -4 |
Primary Participation
Primary participation can sometimes indicate early interest in an election and is another important touch point for campaigns and organizations to engage voters. It is important to note, however, that interpreting primary participation requires attention to each state’s specific electoral context. The presence of competitive Democratic primaries may boost AAPI participation because AAPI voters in aggregate lean Democratic, whereas uncontested Democratic primaries may not motivate turnout. While contested primaries can reveal important clues regarding enthusiasm for the general election, an absence of an active primary usually doesn’t warrant concern for general election enthusiasm.
AAPI primary vote share increased nationally from 3% in 2018 to 4% in 2022, and remained stable at 2% in highly contested states. In Nevada – the highly contested 2022 state with the largest AAPI registration share – AAPI primary vote share remained stable between 2018 and 2022, though general election vote share increased over this period.
Figure 12. AAPI Share of the Primary Electorate Nationally and in Highly Contested States, 2014-2022
Vote Method
The 2020 general election was anomalous because it unfolded during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in exceptionally high vote-by-mail rates. Rates of voting by mail or early in-person among AAPI voters decreased between 2020 and 2022 nationally and in highly contested states, closely following vote-method shifts in the overall population. Among the highly contested states that report disaggregated counts of vote by mail and early in person voting, some saw countervailing trends, however. In Nevada, vote by mail rates increased between 2020 and 2022, both overall and among AAPI voters. Changes to laws and election practices likely contributed to this shift. Meanwhile, Georgia, Kansas, and New Mexico increased their rates of early in-person voting both overall and among AAPI voters over this same period.
Figure 13a. Composition of Vote Methods among AAPI Voters, 2020-2022
Figure 13b. Composition of Vote Methods among All Voters, 2020-2022
What Happened 2022 Constituency Reports
Contributors
Lead authors. Kirsten Walters, Data Scientist; Ben Gross, Analyst
Project lead. Hillary Anderson, Director of Analytics; Haris Aqeel, Senior Advisor
Editor. Aaron Huertas, Communications Director
Graphics and data engineering. Kirsten Walters, Data Scientist
Catalist Executives. Michael Frias, CEO; Molly Norton, Chief Client Officer
Catalist Analytics Team. Janay Cody PhD, Senior Advisor for Data Equity; Jonathan Robinson, Director of Research
Catalist Data Team. Russ Rampersad, Chief Data Officer; Lauren O’Brien, Deputy Chief Data Officer; Dan Buttrey, Director of Data Acquisition
Many current and former staff members have also contributed to this report through their work building and maintaining the Catalist file. These insights would not be possible with the long-term investment Catalist has made in people and data since 2006.
Finally, Catalist is deeply grateful to the clients, partners and other community leaders who offered thoughtful review and feedback throughout the process, especially:
- EMILY’S List: Melissa Williams, Vice President Independent Expenditure
- EquisLabs: Carlos Odio, Co-Founder and Senior Vice President of Research; and team
- HIT Strategies: Terrance Woodbury, CEO and Co-Founder; and team
- NAACP in partnership with GSSA: Derrick Johnson, President and CEO NAACP; Dr. Albert Yates, Principal GSSA, Catalist board member
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund: Rachel Hall; Director, Data, Analytics and Research
- Strategic Victory Fund: Stephanie Schriock
What Happened™ Catalist © LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Proprietary data and analysis not for reproduction or republication.
Catalist’s actual providing of products and services shall be pursuant to the terms and conditions of a mutually executed Catalist Data License and Services Agreement.