ANALYTICS & MODELING

Catalist’s database holds the most comprehensive and accurate modeling suite available to the progressive community today. Our models and synthetic variables are extensively and successfully used across the community to inform program decisions. 

The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior.

Our infrastructure has been developed with longitudinal research in mind, leveraging the civic behavior, political attitudes, and issue preferences of individuals over time – even when they move across districts and states.

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First National Partisanship Model
2006

Catalist build the first national model to capture self-identification, rather than party registration

First National Vote Propensity Model
2008

Catalist built the first national model to validate better than state-based models

Behavior Modeling: Vote Choice Index & The Peoria Project
2014

Catalist released Vote Choice History (VCH) and the Vote Choice Index model (VCI) in 2014, a new form of statistical modeling based on actual voting behavior, factoring in longitudinal demographics and precinct-level election results.

Starting in 2017, The Peoria Project developed values-based messaging models based on a nuanced spectrum of values and attitudes that inform political beliefs.

VIRTUOUS CYCLE

On top of official sources, like voter file and Census data, we leverage the power of client and partner inputs – surveys, paid and field IDs, and more – to our modeling and analytics data. Our clients and partners decide which data to share with the community, feeding a constant cycle of cleaning and refining our database. Contact data is used and verified, then new behavioral data is added to refine predictive models. These elements enable us to offer the most comprehensive and accurate modeling suite available to the progressive community today. 

BEHAVIOR MODELS

  • Partisanship & Ideology
  • Vote Propensity
  • Digital Messaging
  • Media Consumption Models
  • 499 Deliveries and Mailability
  • Likelihood to Read Mail

DEMOGRAPHIC MODELS

  • Race & Ethnicity
  • Age Group
  • Household Income
  • Marital Status
  • Presence of Children
  • Religion
  • Educational Attainment
  • Economic Sensitivity

ISSUE PREFERENCE MODELS

  • Pro-Choice Policy Support
  • Environmental Activism
  • General Activism
  • Gun Control
  • Immigration Reform
  • Marijuana Legalization
  • Minimum Wage Increase
  • Likelihood to take action on select issues

CUSTOM MODELING

For organizations interested in building their own models, Catalist's Analytics Exports provide access to hundreds of fields of commercial, behavioral, and modeled data. Our team of in-house modeling experts is available for consultation and collaboration as you find the best ways to use Catalist data to meet your needs. Catalist has worked with several partners to develop programmatic and predictive models, including:

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Human Rights Campaign
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Research & Analysis

Catalist Data Scientists produce leading research and to-the-point analysis of election results, demographic trends, and political psychology.