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Recent Catalist Coverage

Democrats are losing the culture wars

Ronald Brownstein | December 9, 2021

"The change in the Democratic coalition has been even more profound. As recently as Clinton’s 1996 reelection, those non-college-educated white voters constituted nearly three-fifths of all Democrats, according to data from the Pew Research Center, with the remainder of the party divided about equally between college-educated white voters and minority voters. By 2020, the Democratic targeting firm Catalist, in its well-respected analysis of the election results, concluded that non-college-educated white Americans contributed only about one-third of Biden’s votes, far less than in 1996, only slightly more than white Americans with a college degree, and considerably less than people of color (who provided about two-fifths of Biden’s support). This ongoing realignment—in which Democrats have replaced blue-collar white voters who have shifted toward the GOP (particularly in small towns and rural areas) with minority voters and well-educated white voters clustered in the urban centers and inner suburbs of the nation’s largest metropolitan areas—has allowed the party to coalesce around a more uniformly liberal cultural agenda."

Who Will Show Up To Vote Next Year?

Amy Walter | October 29, 2021

"In many ways, Nevada encapsulates some of the most conventional-wisdom-defying aspects of the 2020 election cycle,” writes Catalist’s Jonathan Robinson, “with dramatic increases in turnout and a fast diversifying electorate resulting in a similarly narrow victory in the state.”

New report details how Biden won 2 key states — and what Dems can learn from it

Scott Bland and Elena Schneider | October 27, 2021

“It's not appreciated that people of all races, when they don't pay attention to politics, don't have strong ideological patterns,” said Jonathan Robinson, who authored Catalist’s report, in an interview with POLITICO. “Their preferences will be different than those with a strong socialization around politics.”

Report: Increasingly diverse electorate didn’t expand Biden’s 2020 margin of victory in Nevada over Clinton’s 2016 win

Megan Messerly | October 27, 2021

“Nevada is just a very interesting state. Given how large the Latino population is and how relatively small the white population is relative to the country as a whole, it actually is one of the places where we didn't see Biden improve in the real same way in his margin relative to Clinton that happened almost every other place,” said Jonathan Robinson, director of research for Catalist and the report’s author.

Schooling Alongside Minorities Reduces White Students’ Tendency to Vote Republican

Carla Fried | September 22, 2021

A research brief from the UCLA Anderson Review cites Catalist data analysis on the 2020 election.

Center for Security in Politics Announces New Working Group to Study Digital Remote Voting

New group will consist of experienced cybersecurity and election security experts, election administrators and engineers to explore new voting methods that expand the ease and accessibility of voting

September 8, 2021

Catalist CEO Michael Frias joins research team at Berkeley's Goldman School for Public Policy.

How Democrats Won the 2020 Election

August 6, 2021

"Every election cycle, dozens, if not hundreds, of post-election analyses are published to explain the results. Today, our Data Dive focuses on one analysis of the 2020 election: Progressive data firm Catalist’s “What Happened in 2020” study, which makes sense of a national database of voter turnout information and highlights key trends that could guide Democrats to victory in the future."

Biden can’t avoid a precarious balancing act. His voter base requires it

David Lauter | July 2, 2021

“Years ago, the exit polls were virtually the only game in town. Now, however, the sources of data have expanded. In April, the Census released its data on who voted, although it does not ask which candidate a person favored. There are also academic studies such as the Cooperative Congressional Election Study and the long-running American National Election Study from the University of Michigan and work from partisan groups like the Democratic firm Catalist, which issued an important analysis of election data in May.”

The Most Complete Picture Yet of America’s Changing Electorate

Republicans and Democrats have amassed divergent coalitions that will make coming elections especially competitive—and bitter.

Ronald Brownstein | July 1, 2021

President Biden cut into Donald Trump’s margins with married men and veteran households, a Pew survey shows. But there was a far deeper well of support for Mr. Trump than many progressives had imagined.

Nate Cohn | June 30, 2021

A years long challenge for the left was starkly illustrated this week as its hopes faded in the New York mayor’s race.

Lisa Lerer | June 26, 2021

How Democrats can defy history in 2022

Ronald Brownstein | June 22, 2021

“We had a massive turnout in 2020, all these marginal voters who had not voted before. So the degree to which they stay in the electorate is the big question for me." - Meg Schwenzfeier, Chief Analytics Officer, Catalist

Out-of-Touch Media Elites Are Ignoring Working-Class Biden Voters

Eric Levitz | June 15, 2021

"In November’s general election, meanwhile, Biden won 47 percent of the non-college-educated vote, according to an analysis of voter-file records from the data firm Catalist. That isn’t a majority, but it’s no negligible fraction, either. In absolute terms, Biden received more votes from working-class Americans than he did from college-educated ones."

Biden is getting a big bounce with Hispanics

Harry Enten | May 29, 2021

"That 72% is a clear improvement from how Biden did in the election with Hispanics. Biden won 65% of Hispanics, according to the network exit polls. An estimate from the Democratic firm Catalist (which lines up well with what we saw in pre-election polls) had Biden taking 61% of Hispanics. So this Gallup data suggests Biden's support may be up anywhere from 7 to 11 points from the election."

What Happened in 2020™ Coverage

New data helps explain Trump’s gains among Latino voters in 2020

Democrats can’t afford to take Latino voters for granted.

Nicole Narea |

“Is this bad news or is this good news for the Democratic Party? The reality is that’s not knowable right now,” Michael Frias, CEO of the election data analysis firm Catalist, said. “What we know is this is a fast-growing part of the electorate, and there’s opportunity here. The race is really who’s going to invest the time, energy and attention to learn more about these voters, engage more of these voters, and really listen to them.”

“Stop taking broad communities for granted. It has to be earned,” Frias said. “And it’s hard work to keep up communication and engagement with voters year-in, year-out, outside of election cycles and in election cycles. But there is enough money in politics to be able to have those conversations continuously.”

The 2020 Election Was a Breakthrough Moment For Young Voters

Charlotte Alter | May 18, 2021

"For starters, there are simply more of them. According to new data from the Democratic data firm Catalist, Millennials and members of Gen Z—which together make up the American adults born since 1981— now represent 31% of the electorate, up from 23% in 2016 and just 14% in 2008. Meanwhile, the voting blocs that have long maintained an iron grip on American political power are receding. In 2008, Baby Boomers and older generations (American adults born before 1964) made up 61% of the electorate; by 2020, they were only 44%."

“That’s a permanent change,” says Yair Ghitza, chief scientist at Catalist. “And it’s only going to grow from there.”

A new analysis uncovers the demographic shifts that led to Joe Biden’s victory

Suburban whites moved left; young and non-white voters showed up

May 14, 2021

"A new analysis by Catalist, a firm that examines political data, reveals many different angles to Mr Biden’s victory."

Trump’s improvement with non-White voters in 2020 was important — but not as important as the turnout surge

Philip Bump | May 10, 2021

"The data firm Catalist explored the 2020 electorate in a lengthy report published Monday. It breaks out the voter pool along several demographic lines, including race and education. In particular, the analysis splits up the White electorate into those with and without a college degree, a divide that emerged as essential in 2016 and 2018."

Massive turnout, voters of color — new data fill in the details on Biden’s election win

David Lauter | May 10, 2021

"Those voters, many of whom live in suburban areas, swung sharply against Trump in the 2018 midterm election and stuck with Biden in 2020, said Yair Ghitza, Catalist’s chief scientist."

“In the Trump era, white college voters have become an increasingly core piece of the Democratic coalition,” Ghitza said. A big question for the next couple of elections is, “will that continue?”

A new report complicates simplistic narratives about race and the 2020 election

The report from the firm Catalist looks at what changed since 2016, but also at the parties’ coalitions overall.

Andrew Prokop |

"In the days and weeks after presidential election results come in, commentators attempting to figure out what happened with voter demographics are often in a fog — forced to rely on unreliable exit polls. More rigorous analysis simply takes longer."

"Now, Catalist, a Democratic data firm, has put out a report on “What Happened in 2020,” authored by Yair Ghitza and Jonathan Robinson, which makes a serious attempt to answer that question. The report is superior to the exit polls because it’s based in their research for what’s known as a “voter file.” Basically, they’ve put together a large database of turnout information about actual voters, assembled from state or local records about who actually showed up."

New Voters Helped Propel Biden in 2020

Amy Walter | May 10, 2021

"We know that 2020 produced the largest voter turnout in modern history. But, for a detailed understanding of who voted—and how they voted—we had to wait until state voter files were updated and analyzed. This week, Catalist, a Democratic data analytics firm, released their first deep dive into the 2020 election using their database, which, they note "includes 15 years of voter registration records, supplemented by large-scale polling, modeling and precinct-level geographic analysis. What they found was a national electorate more diverse than any in American history."

Younger voters propelled Biden to victory over Trump in 2020, new study finds

Alex Roarty | May 10, 2021

“In short, 2020 accelerated a massive change in the composition of the electorate, with Millennials and Gen Z taking an increasingly prominent role in the future of American elections – a demographic change that is functionally permanent,” wrote Yair Ghitza and Jonathan Robinson, the co-authors of the Catalist study.

Young, diverse voters fueled Biden victory over Trump

Reid Wilson | May 10, 2021

"The data firm Catalist explored the 2020 electorate in a lengthy report published Monday. It breaks out the voter pool along several demographic lines, including race and education. In particular, the analysis splits up the White electorate into those with and without a college degree, a divide that emerged as essential in 2016 and 2018."