Posts by Aaron Huertas
The 2018 electorate was older, whiter, and better educated than in 2016
Democrats hit some of their GOTV targets but missed others. Matthew Yglesias | November 12, 2018 A picture of the people who voted in the 2018 midterms is starting to emerge, and it offers a template for who Democrats will need to reach ahead of 2020. Exit polls found that voters were younger and less…
Read MoreThe early vote suggests minority turnout will be high in 2018, but so will turnout among whites
Bernard Fraga and Brian Schaffner | November 1, 2018 The expansion of early voting has not only made it more convenient for Americans to cast their ballots, but it has also become a tempting source of data to try to predict what might happen once the dust has settled on election night. In 2016, our analysis of the early vote was fairly…
Read MoreRace was the biggest factor in 2016 — but economics is still Democrats’ winning message
This metric was developed by the political data firm Catalist. The idea is that when you vote, it doesn’t matter whether other people think you’re financially comfortable; what matters is the pressure you feel.
Read MoreStudies: Democratic politicians represent middle-class voters. GOP politicians don’t.
Political scientists are finding an alarming pattern. Dylan Matthews | April 2, 2018 If you think American politics is a rigged shell game, where the views of the rich and powerful count but those of regular Americans don’t, then two prominent political scientists agree with you. Three years ago, Martin Gilens of UCLA and Benjamin…
Read MoreWhy did Trump win? More whites – and fewer blacks – actually voted.
Bernard L. Fraga, Sean McElwee, Jesse Rhodes, and Brian Schnaffer | May 8, 2017 Why did Trump win — and Clinton lose — the 2016 U.S. presidential election? That’s been debated widely, to understate the case. Nominees include each campaign’s ground game, messaging, FBI Director James B. Comey’s last-minute letter to Congress, and defections from the “Obama coalition.” Here, we offer new data to…
Read MoreWho’s voting early? Latino turnout is surging, but white turnout is, too.
Bernard L. Fraga and Brian Schaffner | November 4, 2016 By most accounts, Hillary Clinton’s path to victory relies on substantial turnout among black and Latino voters. And while early voting numbers so far appear to favor the Democrats, reports in recent days have suggested that although Latino participation may be up, African American turnout may be lower than in 2012.…
Read MoreWhy Clinton Might Have A Tough Time Flipping The Sanders Holdouts
Harry Enten | July 25, 2016 PHILADELPHIA — Hillary Clinton is coming into her convention with a real problem. Even before WikiLeaks released thousands of Democratic National Committee emails, including some that suggested officials were actively working against Bernie Sanders, Clinton had about a third of Sanders supporters left to try to win over. The emails have exacerbated tensions…
Read MoreHow Many Republicans Marry Democrats?
To answer these questions, I teamed up with Yair Ghitza, chief scientist at Catalist, a prominent political data firm that sells data to left-of-center campaigns and interest groups, and also to academics like me who use the data for scholarly research. Catalist maintains a continuously updated database containing records of personal, political and commercial data for nearly all American adults.
Read MoreThere are more white voters than people think. That’s good news for Trump.
Nate Cohn | June 9, 2016 One of the biggest reasons Donald Trump is considered to be a long shot to win the presidency is the diversity of the country. As Joe Scarborough of MSNBC put it, “There are not enough white voters in America for Donald Trump to win while getting routed among minorities.” But a growing body…
Read MoreIs Traditional Polling Underselling Donald Trump’s True Strength?
Nate Cohn | May 17, 2016 Hillary Clinton’s lead in general election polls has faded over the last few weeks. One reason might be that a growing number of Republicans are coalescing around Donald Trump’s candidacy. Another part of the explanation? Fewer live-interview telephone polls. So far this year, live-interview telephone surveys have tended to…
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