What Happened in the New Hampshire Senate Election? (2018)

Please note: The analysis below is based on an initial estimate of the 2018 electorate. Catalist released an updated analysis of the 2018 electorate in May 2019.


January 28, 2019

Author: Maggie Dart-Padover, Analyst


The map below shows some regional preferences. Pappas outperformed Kelly most in his home base of Manchester. Kelly came close to Kuster’s margin near Kelly’s former State Senate District in Cheshire County, in the southwest part of the state.


Single men were particularly likely to be ticket-splitters. Despite Sununu narrowly carrying this group (by 5 points), they voted to send Democrats to congress by 16 points, an even greater margin than they voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016.


New Hampshire congressional Democrats won areas Catalist has classified as urban, suburban, and rural. Although Kelly won the 4% of the electorate that lives in urban areas, she won them by only a 10 point margin, 19 points less than Kuster and Pappas’ combined 29 point margin. Sununu even won Manchester, the largest city in the state. Ticket-splitting was less prevalent in the more rural parts of the state, where the gap between Democratic support in the governor race and the house races was 17 points.


Democratic congressional candidates even won rural areas of the state, in which a plurality of 2018 voters live. Clinton lost rural voters by 3 points.