What Happened™ in 2022

Constituency Reports: Black Voters

Black voters are the most consistently Democratic-leaning constituency in the electorate by race. In 2022, they continued to play a critical role in Democratic coalitions, but our estimates suggest a decrease in vote share and erosion of Democratic support nationally, especially among younger Black voters but also among Black men, suburban and rural Black voters, and Black voters without four-year college degrees. However, in highly contested states, particularly those with competitive statewide races, Black vote share and support remained fairly stable compared to 2018 and President Biden’s 2020 coalition respectively. 

Table 1. Share of Electorate and Democratic Support by Race

House: NationalSenate/Gov: Highly Contested
Percent of VotersDem Support
(Two-Way)
Percent of VotersDem Support
(Two-Way)
Group201820222018 to
2022
Pres
2020
20222020 to
2022
201820222018 to
2022
Pres
2020
20222020 to
2022
Total100100+05249-3100100+05051+1
White7576+24442-27979+04244+2
Black1210-19188-31211-19291-1
Hispanic/Latino98-06262+155+06162+1
AAPI44+06659-722+06361-2
Other22+0------22+0------
Catalist largely follows Census conventions for representing race on the voter file, including white, Black, Latino, AAPI and Other categories, the latter of which includes Native American, biracial, multiracial and other groups.
©Catalist

Overall, Democrats retained their overwhelming advantage with Black voters in 2022. States with highly contested Senate and Gubernatorial races – in which Black voters formed a crucial bloc in winning Democratic coalitions – retained relatively stable levels of Democratic support between the 2020 Presidential election and the 2022 midterms. 

While recent elections – especially midterms – have seen high participation among Black voters, their general election vote share in 2022 decreased as other groups, including white voters, turned out in even higher numbers. Black voter turnout and support patterns reflect regional variation, with states that have relatively larger Black vote shares showing higher levels of support for Democratic candidates. State-by-state variation is also apparent in the continued availability and uptake of early voting among Black voters. 

Finally, compared to 2018’s blue wave midterm, the Black electorate included slightly higher shares of male voters, non-married voters, suburban voters, and voters with four-year college degrees. 

This report examines in close detail levels and trends across recent election cycles in registration, vote share, support, and vote method among Black voters, breaking out these topics by state and sub-constituency as relevant to illuminate key findings.

House vote and Heavily Contested vs. Less Contested Statewide Races

Normally, midterm elections involve a national swing in one direction, usually against an incumbent party. But in 2022, with Democrats overperformed in states with heavily contested statewide elections. Catalist’s analysis calculates modeled support for House races, which largely reflect national trends, as well as top-of-ticket statewide races for governor and Senate. Using the Cook Political Report's pre-election rating of races as Toss-Up or Lean, heavily contested races include 64 House races; Senate races in Arizona, Georgia, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and Gubernatorial races in Arizona, Georgia, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon and Wisconsin. Read more in the Catalist constituency report Data Guide.

Data Guide

Catalist’s What Happened 2022 Constituency Report Data Guide includes definitions, method and other important information about these reports.

Voter Registration

Table 2. Trends in Black Voter Registration

20142016201820202022
Black Registrants24.9M26.3M27.1M28.9M29.1M
Black Registrant Share13.3%13.3%13.4%13.5%13.4%
New Black Registrants2.0M3.5M2.9M3.8M2.2M
New Black Registrant Share8.1%13.3%10.7%13.1%7.5%
Dropped Black Registrants1.9M2.0M2.2M2.0M2.0M
Dropped Black Registrant Share7.5%7.6%7.9%6.8%7.0%
Registration share is the number of Black registrants as a proportion of all registrants. New registrant share is the number of Black registrants since the previous election as a proportion of Black registrants in the present election year. Dropped registrant share is the number of Black registrants dropped off of the voter rolls since the last election as a share of Black registrants in the present election year.
©Catalist

The number of Black registrants increased from 25 million in 2014 to 29 million in 2022, a net increase of around 4 million potential voters. Large registration drives in 2016, 2018, and 2020 continue to pay dividends as one likely driver of this substantial increase. However, Black registrants remained stable as a share of all registrants between 2014 and 2022 at just over 13%.

We can disaggregate cross-cycle registrant changes into new registrant gains and dropped registrant losses. Considering changes between the 2020 Presidential election and the 2022 midterms, 2.2 million of the 29 million potential Black voters in 2022 registered for the first time during this two-year period, representing 7.5% of Black registrants in 2022. These new registrant gains were somewhat offset by dropped registrants. Specifically, 2 million Black registered voters dropped off the rolls between 2020 and 2022, comprising 7% of Black registrants in 2022. Here drops from the voter rolls in a state include registrants moving or passing away, as well as registrants who are removed from voter rolls. In most cases, these changes represent regular churn in the electorate, however, voting rights groups closely monitor these changes as part of their work to combat voter suppression.

Figure 1. Black Registrants as a Share of Total Registrants by State, 2022

On desktop: scroll to zoom in and double click to return to initial view.
©Catalist

Levels of Black registration vary across states, largely in proportion to the size of the Black population. Of the states with highly contested Senate or Gubernatorial elections in 2022, Black registrants comprise the largest shares of the electorate in Georgia and North Carolina, with figures of 33% and 22% respectively. In general, Black registration share remained stable nationally and across highly contested states between 2014 and 2022.

After Republican-appointed justices on the Supreme Court overturned long-standing abortion rights over the summer through their decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, Catalist’s national What Happened report found that immediately there was a spike in women registrants relative to men, providing an indication that the decision played an important role in the 2022 electorate. After the spike, the share of women registrants decreased but remained elevated perhaps due to a combination of registration programs and organic enthusiasm. This spike in registrations was not isolated to one racial group but instead unfolded across groups, including among Black women registrants. 

Figure 2. Percent of Voter Registrations by Black Women Compared to all Women, 2022

Dots represent the relative number of voter registrations reported on each calendar day, with larger dots indicating more registrations. Their position on the y-axis shows the share of daily reported registrations composed of women registrants. Lines represent 7-day averages to help illustrate trends.
©Catalist

General Election Trends

Vote Share

In aggregate, Black voters comprised a smaller portion of the electorate in the 2022 general election compared to the relatively high turnout 2018 “blue wave” election, with a two percentage point drop in vote share nationally and a one percentage point drop in highly contested states. Black vote share remained stable in most highly contested 2022 states, but was down by one to three points in Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and especially North Carolina compared to 2018. 

Figure 3. Black Share of the Electorate Nationally and in Heavily Contested States, 2014-2022

©Catalist

Breaking out 2022 trends by state, Black voters comprised the largest share of the electorate in states where their registration shares were the highest. Notably, Georgia and North Carolina are the only highly contested 2022 states with substantial Black vote shares; in all other highly contested 2022 states, Black vote shares are about the same as or lower than the national Black vote share. 

Figure 4. Black Share of the Electorate by State, 2022

On desktop: scroll to zoom in and double click to return to initial view.
©Catalist

Nationally, 39% of the registered Black electorate voted in 2022; in highly contested states this figure was 44%. By comparison, the share of overall registrants who voted in 2022 was 51% nationally and 57% in highly contested states. More work remains not only to expand the electorate but also to activate higher participation among Black voters.1This report does not include estimates of “turnout rate”, that is, the share of eligible adults – Citizen Voting Age Persons (CVAP) – who cast ballots. In 2020, Census changed the way they asked about respondents’ race, resulting in different CVAP estimates than previous years and making cross-cycle comparisons difficult. Catalist will follow up once estimates have been appropriately adjusted.

Support

Two-way Democratic support among Black voters remained very high but decreased between the 2020 Presidential election and the 2022 midterms both nationally and in highly contested states. Nationally, support among Black voters decreased from 91% in the 2020 Presidential election to 88% in 2022 House races. In the demographic sections below, we show that declines in Democratic support were largest among younger voters. 

The drop in Democratic support was smaller in highly contested states, from 92% in the 2020 Presidential election to 91% in 2022 Senate and Gubernatorial races. However, this aggregate finding masks variation in support trends among highly contested states. In Georgia and North Carolina, two-party margins either remained stable (in the case of the Georgia Gubernatorial race) or increased (in the case of the Georgia and North Carolina Senate contests) between 2020 and 2022. By contrast, in all other highly contested 2022 states, Democratic support decreased between 2020 and 2022, with especially sizable drops in Arizona, Ohio, and Wisconsin.  

Figure 5. Black Democratic Support Nationally and in Highly Contested States, 2020-2022

New Hampshire includes a very small population of Black voters that make support modeling complex, and drops in support may be overstated. We would recommend taking with a grain of salt support estimates in races where the population is relatively small and dispersed throughout the geographic region.
©Catalist

Support trends among Black voters also differed between states with larger and smaller Black vote shares.2As the authors Ismail K. White and Cheryl N. Laird describe in their book Steadfast Democrats: How Social Forces Shape Black Political Behavior, social context may influence political behavior. For this analysis, Catalist compared changes in Democratic support between the 2020 Presidential election and 2022 House races among Black voters, between states with higher and lower Black vote shares. We use 15% as a threshold for determining high Black vote share states.3We determine this cutoff by ordering all 50 states and the District of Columbia by 2022 Black vote share and finding the largest magnitude break between two states. This break falls between Virginia, with a Black vote share of 16.3%, and Illinois, with a Black vote share of 12.9%. Under this definition we consider Alabama, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Georgia, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia to have high Black vote shares. These are all jurisdictions that formerly allowed slavery and with the exception of DC were border states or Confederate States during the Civil War. These jurisdictions also contain the majority of the Black Belt – a region defined by its rich soil, its history of cotton cultivation rooted in slavery, and enduring legacies of Black community and cooperative practices as notably documented by W.E.B. Du Bois.4For more on the political legacies of the Black Belt, see Maya Sen, Matthew Blackwell, and Avidit Acharya, Deep Roots: How Slavery Still Shapes Southern Politics, Princeton University Press, 2018.

Among these high Black vote share states, only Georgia and North Carolina had highly contested statewide races in 2022. Both saw increased support for Democrats among Black voters between the 2020 Presidential race and 2022 House races. The other states with high Black vote shares had less contested 2022 statewide races but also showed increases in Democratic support between the 2020 Presidential race and 2022 House races among Black voters, although these changes were smaller in magnitude. By contrast, states with lower Black population shares saw decreases in Democratic support between the 2020 Presidential race and 2022 House races.  

Figure 6. Changes in Democratic Support by Contestation and Black Vote Share, 2020 to 2022

This figure indicates changes in two-way Democratic support between the Biden/Harris ticket in 2020 and House contests in 2022. We determine highly contested states using Cook Political Report ratings of 2022 Senate and Gubernatorial races. We use 15% as a threshold for separating higher and lower Black vote share states. ©Catalist

Factors related to age and gender may contribute to these differences. In states with large Black vote shares and highly contested races, Black men and women respectively saw three and two percentage point increases in Democratic support compared to 2020. By contrast, in states with highly contested races and lower Black vote shares, support consistently decreased across age and gender categories, with the sharpest drops among Gen Z and Millennial Black men. The small net decrease in support among Black voters in highly contested states is accordingly the product of gains in Georgia and North Carolina, the two highly contested and high Black vote share states, which were offset by larger drops in the other highly contested states. In less highly contested states, older voters remained stable or saw slight increases in support while younger voters exhibited some declines in support. Less contested races in states with lower Black vote shares showed decreases in support across age and gender lines. 

It is also worth noting that beyond demographics, both states with large Black vote shares and highly contested statewide races had high-profile Black candidates in top-of-ticket races: namely, Cheri Beasley in North Carolina and Stacey Abrams, Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker in Georgia. 

Vote Share and Support by Demographic Subgroups

To explore differences within the Black electorate, we consider vote share and Democratic support trends by age, gender, marital status, urbanity, and education.

We encourage readers to refer to the Data Guide associated with each constituency report to explore more about how support is modeled. When interpreting two-way Democratic support, it is important to note that shifts from election to election can result from individuals switching their vote from one party to another as well as compositional changes to the electorate, including Republican or Democratic voters in a subgroup turning out in different numbers from election to election. 

While vote share numbers come with relatively high confidence, support numbers come with more uncertainty, particularly at the state and local level and particularly in states with relatively small populations, so support numbers are shared here at an aggregated level.

The composition of the Black electorate nationally closely mirrors that in states with highly contested Senate or Gubernatorial elections in 2022. Accordingly, for each demographic sub- constituency we focus on the shape of the Black electorate nationally. By contrast, there are key differences in Democratic support trends among Black voters nationally compared to in highly contested states. To emphasize these differences we show Democratic support changes for each demographic sub-constituency both nationally and in highly contested states. In interpreting support changes among highly contested 2022 states, note that trends are often driven by Georgia and North Carolina, the two highly contested states with large Black vote shares. 

Age

Younger Black voters in the Millennial and Gen Z cohorts grew sharply as a share of the Black electorate between 2014 and 2022. Over this same period, the share of the Black electorate composed of members of the Baby Boomer, Silent, and Greatest generations decreased, though Black voters in the Baby Boomer cohort continued to represent the largest vote share (36%) of any generational group in the 2022 Black electorate.

Figure 7. Shape of the Black Electorate by Generation, 2014-2022

©Catalist

Nationally, Black turnout was 2.2 million votes lower compared to the 2018 youth-fueled “blue-wave” midterm. Within the Black electorate, Millennial and Gen Z voters exhibited the largest decrease of any generational group in turnout from 3.8 million votes in 2018 to 3.2 million in 2022 – a drop of 15.6%. However, in highly contested states turnout among Black Millennial and Gen Z voters remained relatively stable over this period, with this sub-constituency casting 1.1 million votes in each of the two previous midterm election cycles. Meanwhile, both nationally and in highly contested states the Baby Boomer and Silent Generations steadily decreased as a share of the Black electorate between 2014 and 2022. Looking across birth years, it is notable that only one third of Black voters were in highly contested 2022 states.

Figure 7a. Black Voters in the 2022 Midterms by Birth Year – Nationally

©Catalist

Figure 7b. Black Voters in the 2022 Midterms by Birth Year – Highly Contested States 5Note that Figure 7b has a different y-axis scale than Figure 7a to illustrate variation across midterm years within highly contested 2022 states.

©Catalist

Democratic support levels among Black Gen Z and Millennial voters nationally decreased from 91% in the 2020 Presidential election to 84% in 2022 House races. States with highly contested 2022 elections witnessed a smaller decrease in Democratic support, from 92% in the 2020 Presidential election to 89% in 2022 Senate and Gubernatorial races. These decreases contrast with relative stability in Democratic support levels across all other generations, especially in highly contested states.

Table 3. Democratic Support Among Black Voters by Generation

House:
National
Senate/Gov:
Highly Contested
Pres
2020
2022DiffPres
2020
2022Diff
Gen Z / Millennials9184-79289-3
Gen X9088-29191+0
Baby Boomers9190-19393+0
Silent / Greatest9392-19494+0
©Catalist

Gender

Black women tend to vote at higher rates than Black men, and the composition of the Black electorate reflects this trend. However, the Black electorate became slightly more male between 2014 and 2022. Despite this change, Black women remain the sizable majority of Black voters, both nationally and across states, more than any other racial group. 

Figure 8. Shape of the Black Electorate by Gender, 2014-2022

©Catalist

Modeled national Democratic support decreased among Black men from 87% in the 2020 Presidential election to 83% in 2022 House races. Black women also saw a small decrease but of a smaller magnitude and from a higher baseline, from 93% in 2020 to 91% in 2022. In highly contested states, Democratic support between the 2020 Presidential race and 2022 Senate and Gubernatorial races remained stable among Black women and decreased only slightly among Black men. Finding a small decrease in Democratic support among Black men in highly contested states masks state-by-state differences; between 2020 and 2022, Georgia and North Carolina experienced small increases in Democratic support among Black men whereas all other highly contested states saw decreases.

Cumulatively, the Black electorate has become slightly more male at the same time that Black men have decreased their Democratic support levels. Taken together, these shifts compound decreases in overall support for Democrats among Black voters. 

Table 4. Democratic Support Among Black Voters by Gender

House:
National
Senate/Gov:
Highly Contested
Pres
2020
2022DiffPres
2020
2022Diff
Female9391-29494+0
Male8783-48988-1
©Catalist

Marital Status

The share of the Black electorate composed of married men and women decreased from 2018 to 2022 as it increased among single Black men and women. We are confident in attributing these changes to compositional shifts in the Black electorate as opposed to changes in marriage rates — while marriage rates are declining, the trend is very gradual and does not have an outsized impact on temporally proximate midterm election years. We are also confident that these changes do not solely reflect participation shifts among young Black voters, because the majority (59%) of Black single voters fell into the Gen X and Baby Boomer categories in 2022.

Figure 9. Shape of the Black Electorate by Marital Status, 2014-2022

©Catalist

Nationally, Democratic support levels show substantial variation by gender and marital status – for example, in 2022, single women tend to be more supportive of Democrats by 10 points than married men. Compared to 2020, nationally in 2022 House races support dropped among all marital status subgroups. Decreases among single and married men were of a similar magnitude to changes for men overall, and declines among single and married women were of a similar magnitude to changes for women overall – suggesting that gender was a larger driver than marital status of changes in Democratic support within the Black electorate. In highly contested states, Democratic support remained relatively stable between the 2020 Presidential election and 2022 Senate and Gubernatorial contests across marital status subgroups.

Table 5. Democratic Support Among Black Voters by Marital Status

House:
National
Senate/Gov:
Highly Contested
Pres
2020
2022DiffPres
2020
2022Diff
Single Female9492-29594-1
Single Male8884-48988-1
Married Female9290-29393+0
Married Male8782-58988-1
©Catalist

Urbanity

We define urbanity using population density figures at the Census tract level. Using this method, suburban areas became increasingly diverse over the past several midterm election cycles. The Black electorate became slightly more suburban, and less rural and urban, in 2022.

Figure 10. Shape of the Black Electorate by Urbanity, 2014-2022

©Catalist

Black voter participation dropped off at different rates in urban, suburban, and rural areas between the 2020 Presidential and 2022 midterm elections. Both nationally and in highly contested states, the magnitude of dropoffs in percent change terms was largest among rural Black voters and smallest among suburban Black voters. However, the number of Black suburban voters in 2022 was two to four times larger than the number of Black urban or rural voters. As a result, dropoff in absolute terms was largest among suburban Black voters. 

Figure 11. Dropoff Analysis in Number of Black Voters, 2020-2022

NationalHighly Contested States
20202022Dropoff20202022Dropoff
Urban5.5M3.2M41.1%1.1M0.7M33.4%
Suburban10.3M6.8M34.1%3.4M2.5M26.1%
Rural2.5M1.4M42.7%0.7M0.5M36.7%
©Catalist

Nationally, both rural and suburban Black voters saw decreases in Democratic support between the 2020 Presidential race and 2022 House races, from 84% to 80% and from 91% to 88% respectively. Meanwhile, Democratic support among urban Black voters remained relatively stable. In highly contested states, between the 2020 Presidential contest and 2022 Senate and Gubernatorial races Democratic support remained stable among urban and suburban Black voters and increased slightly among rural Black voters. As states with sizable Black rural populations, especially in Black Belt counties, Georgia and North Carolina drove this increase in Black rural Democratic support. Our estimates suggest drops in Black rural Democratic support in all other highly contested 2022 states.  

Table 6. Democratic Support Among Black Voters by Urbanity

House:
National
Senate/Gov:
Highly Contested
Pres
2020
2022DiffPres
2020
2022Diff
Urban9392-19392-1
Suburban9188-39392-1
Rural8480-48688+2
©Catalist

Education

In 2022, slightly more than one-third of Black voters had four-year college degrees. Voters with four-year college degrees increased a share of the Black electorate between 2014 and 2022; non-college voters decreased as a share of the Black electorate over the same period. Declines in turnout among Black voters without four-year college degrees between 2018 and 2022 may contribute to this trend, as well as increasing rates of four-year college attendance.

Figure 12. Shape of the Black Electorate by Education, 2014-2022

©Catalist

Black voters with four-year college degrees exhibited stability in their Democratic support between the 2020 Presidential race and 2022 House, Senate, and Gubernatorial races, remaining at 89% nationally and 91% in highly contested states. In highly contested states, Democratic support also remained steady at 92% among Black voters without four-year college degrees. However, Democratic support among Black voters without four-year college degrees decreased nationally from 91% in 2020 to 87% in 2022. 

Table 7. Democratic Support Among Black Voters by Education

House:
National
Senate/Gov:
Highly Contested
Pres
2020
2022DiffPres
2020
2022Diff
Non-College9187-49292+0
College8989+09191+0
©Catalist

Primary Participation

Primary participation can sometimes indicate early interest in an election and is a key touch point for campaigns and organizations seeking to engage voters. It is important to note, however, that interpreting primary participation requires attention to each state’s specific electoral context. Because the Black electorate skews Democratic, the presence of competitive Democratic primaries may boost Black participation, whereas uncontested Democratic primaries may not motivate turnout. While contested primaries can reveal important clues regarding enthusiasm for the general election, an absence of an active primary usually does not warrant concern for general election enthusiasm.

Both nationally and in highly contested states, Black vote share in primary contests remained stable between 2018 and 2022. Disaggregating by state reveals variations indicating that contested primaries may provide clues about overall enthusiasm for the general election: vote share was down from 2018 in North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, four of the five highly contested 2022 states with at least one open statewide seat and a contested primary of non-incumbents. In all of these states, vote share was also down in the general election compared to 2018’s general election vote share.

Figure 13. Black Share of the Primary Electorate Nationally and in Highly Contested States, 2014-2022

Outlines around Arizona, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin indicate that in these highly contested 2022 states, there was at least one open statewide seat and a contested primary of non-incumbents.
©Catalist

Vote Method

The 2020 general election was anomalous because it unfolded during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, meaning that vote by mail rates were exceptionally high. In aggregate, rates of voting by mail and early in-person decreased between the 2020 and 2022 general elections. However, among the highly contested 2022 states that disaggregate their vote counts by method, some exhibited countervailing trends. In Colorado and Nevada, vote by mail rates increased between 2020 and 2022, both overall and among Black voters. In these states, changes to laws and election practices likely contributed to shifts. Meanwhile, Georgia saw substantial increases in early in-person voting between 2020 and 2022, especially among Black voters. The share of early in person voting increased by 7 percentage points among Black voters in Georgia, from 52% in 2020 to 59% in 2022. By comparison, among all voters in Georgia the increase was only 2 percentage points.

Figure 14a. Composition of Vote Methods among Black Voters, 2020-2022

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Figure 14b. Composition of Vote Methods among All Voters, 2020-2022

©Catalist

What Happened 2022 Constituency Reports

Contributors

Lead authors. Kirsten Walters, Data Scientist; Ben Gross, Analyst

Project lead. Hillary Anderson, Director of Analytics; Haris Aqeel, Senior Advisor

Editor. Aaron Huertas, Communications Director

Graphics and data engineering. Kirsten Walters, Data Scientist

Catalist Executives. Michael Frias, CEO; Molly Norton, Chief Client Officer

Catalist Analytics Team. Janay Cody PhD, Senior Advisor for Data Equity; Jonathan Robinson, Director of Research

Catalist Data Team. Russ Rampersad, Chief Data Officer; Lauren O’Brien, Deputy Chief Data Officer; Dan Buttrey, Director of Data Acquisition

Many current and former staff members have also contributed to this report through their work building and maintaining the Catalist file. These insights would not be possible with the long-term investment Catalist has made in people and data since 2006.

Finally, Catalist is deeply grateful to the clients, partners and other community leaders who offered thoughtful review and feedback throughout the process, especially: 

  • EMILY’S List: Melissa Williams, Vice President Independent Expenditure
  • EquisLabs: Carlos Odio, Co-Founder and Senior Vice President of Research; and team
  • HIT Strategies: Terrance Woodbury, CEO and Co-Founder; and team
  • NAACP in partnership with GSSA:  Derrick Johnson, President and CEO NAACP; Dr. Albert Yates, Principal GSSA, Catalist board member
  • Planned Parenthood Action Fund: Rachel Hall; Director, Data, Analytics and Research
  • Strategic Victory Fund: Stephanie Schriock

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