What Happened™ in 2022

Constituency Reports: Latino Voters

Latino voters represent one of the fastest-growing constituencies in the electorate. Latino voters have historically leaned strongly Democratic but their support share eroded between the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections. In 2022, Latino vote share and Democratic support stayed relatively stable, both nationally and in states with highly contested 2022 Senate and Gubernatorial elections.

Table 1. Share of Electorate and Democratic Support by Race

House: NationalSenate/Gov: Highly Contested
Percent of VotersDem Support
(Two-Way)
Percent of VotersDem Support
(Two-Way)
Group201820222018 to
2022
Pres
2020
20222020 to
2022
201820222018 to
2022
Pres
2020
20222020 to
2022
Total100100+05249-3100100+05051+1
White7576+24442-27979+04244+2
Black1210-19188-31211-19291-1
Hispanic/Latino98-06262+155+06162+1
AAPI44+06659-722+06361-2
Other22+0------22+0------
Catalist largely follows Census conventions for representing race on the voter file, including white, Black, Latino, AAPI and Other categories, the latter of which includes Native American, biracial, multiracial and other groups.
©Catalist

This overall stability includes some shifts within the Latino electorate. For instance, our estimates suggest that erosion of support among older Latino voters was offset by gains in support among younger Latino voters. Additionally, changes in Democratic support between 2020 and 2022 were relatively uniform across demographic subgroups of Latino voters by gender, marital status, urbanity, and educational attainment, suggesting that factors beyond the demographic attributes examined in this report may be necessary to pinpoint where Democratic support shifted. 

Latino support also varied significantly by geography and national origin. In Florida, Democratic support decreased substantially between the 2020 Presidential election and the 2022 midterms. To highlight the unusual nature of these shifts, we contrast Democratic support trends between 2020 and 2022 in Florida to those in Texas, another state that experienced decreases in Democratic support among Latino voters between the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections but saw rebounds in Democratic support among Latino voters between the 2020 Presidential election and the 2022 midterms. Young voters contributed to shifts in both states, and differences in Democratic support trends by national origin are a likely part of the story in Florida, as we discuss when dissecting shifts in this state.

Latino voters also showed stability in their 2022 general election vote share relative to 2018. However, Latino voters have sharply grown as a share of all registered voters between 2014 and 2022, suggesting opportunities to mobilize Latino registrants and increase Latino vote share. Vote method analyses also raise mobilization opportunities, with Latino voters showing decreases in Early In-Person Voting between 2020 and 2022 in states where the share of votes cast using this method increased overall. 

Finally, the composition of the Latino electorate shifted along some demographic dimensions and remained stable along others across the last three midterm elections. Relative to 2014 and 2018, the 2022 Latino electorate included slightly higher shares of Gen Z and Millennial voters, non-married voters, and suburban voters. Over this same period the composition of the Latino electorate remained stable by gender and educational attainment. 

This report examines in close detail levels and trends across recent election cycles in registration, vote share, support, and vote method among Latino voters, breaking out these topics by state and sub-constituency as relevant to illuminate key findings.

House vote and Heavily Contested vs. Less Contested Statewide Races

Normally, midterm elections involve a national swing in one direction, usually against an incumbent party. But in 2022, with Democrats overperformed in states with heavily contested statewide elections. Catalist’s analysis calculates modeled support for House races, which largely reflect national trends, as well as top-of-ticket statewide races for governor and Senate. Using the Cook Political Report's pre-election rating of races as Toss-Up or Lean, heavily contested races include 64 House races; Senate races in Arizona, Georgia, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and Gubernatorial races in Arizona, Georgia, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon and Wisconsin. Read more in the Catalist constituency report Data Guide.

Data Guide

Catalist’s What Happened 2022 Constituency Report Data Guide includes definitions, method and other important information about these reports.

Voter Registration

The number of Latino registrants sharply increased from 16.8 million in 2014 to 25 million in 2022, a net increase of around 8 million potential voters. Not only did the number of Latino registrants increase in absolute terms, but it also increased in relative terms: the Latino share of all registrants grew from 9% in 2014 to 11.5% in 2022. 

We can decompose cross-cycle registration increases into new registrant gains and dropped registrant losses. Trends in new registrations further substantiate the fast-growing nature of the registered Latino population. The 2016 and 2020 Presidential election cycles especially saw spikes in new Latino registrants, but midterm election cycles also produced steady increases in registration among potential Latino voters. The number of new Latino registrants increased from 1.8 million between 2012 and 2014 to 2.7 million between 2020 and 2022. As far as dropped registrants, 1.5 million Latino registered voters dropped off the rolls between the 2020 Presidential election and the 2022 midterms, representing 6.2% of all Latino registered voters in 2022. These drops include registrants moving or passing away, as well as registrants who are removed from voter rolls. However, the number of Latino registrants dropped in each midterm election cycle increased only slightly in absolute terms between 2014 and 2022 and decreased as a share of Latino registrants over this same period. 

Table 2. Trends in Latino Voter Registration

20142016201820202022
Latino Registrants16.8M19.3M20.9M23.8M25.0M
Latino Registrant Share9.0%9.8%10.3%11.1%11.5%
New Latino Registrants1.8M3.8M3.0M4.3M2.7M
New Latino Registrant Share11.0%19.7%14.2%18.0%10.9%
Dropped Latino Registrants1.1M1.3M1.4M1.4M1.5M
Dropped Latino Registrant Share6.7%7.0%6.5%5.7%6.2%
Registration share is the number of Latino registrants as a proportion of all registrants. New registrant share is the number of Latino registrants since the previous election as a proportion of Latino registrants in the present election year. Dropped registrant share is the number of Latino registrants dropped off of the voter rolls since the last election as a share of Latino registrants in the present election year.
©Catalist

Levels of Latino registration vary across states, largely in proportion to the size of the Latino population. Among the states with highly contested Senate or Gubernatorial elections in 2022, Latino registrant shares were highest in New Mexico, Arizona, and Nevada, comprising 39%, 20%, and 18% of each state’s registrants respectively. Overall, Latino registration share increased between 2014 and 2022, from 9% to 12% nationally and from 5% to 7% in states with highly contested 2022 Senate and Gubernatorial races.

Figure 1. Latino Registrants as a Share of Total Registrants by State, 2022

On desktop: scroll to zoom in and double click to return to initial view.
©Catalist

After Republican-appointed justices on the Supreme Court overturned long-standing abortion rights over the summer, Catalist’s national What Happened report found that there was a spike of women registrants, indicating that the decision played an important role in shaping the 2022 electorate. This spike in registrations was not isolated to one racial group but instead unfolded across groups, including among Latina women. Normally, new registrations would be relatively evenly split between men and women, but women registered at relatively higher levels immediately after the decision. The immediate spike in registrations in July was slightly lower for Latina women compared to all women, but Latina women registered at relatively higher rates throughout the cycle. 

Figure 2. Percent of Voter Registrations by Latina Women Compared to all Women, 2022

Dots represent the relative number of voter registrations reported on each calendar day, with larger dots indicating more registrations. Their position on the y-axis shows the share of daily reported registrations composed of women registrants. Lines represent 7-day averages to help illustrate trends.
©Catalist

The increase in women registrants was especially concentrated among young women. The share of Latina women registrants under the age of 35 increased by 2 percentage points between the month preceding and the month following the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs Among all women under the age of 35, the change was 3.1 percentage points.

Though we focus here on shifts in the demographic composition of Latino registrants, Equis Research’s 2022 Post Mortem suggests that the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs motivated increased turnout among pro-choice Latino voters as well.1Specifically, the Equis Research 2022 Post Mortem found that Latino voters ranking abortion as their top issue turned out at higher than expected rates.

General Election Trends

Vote Share

Latino vote share grew nationally from 6% in 2014 to 9% in the 2018 “blue wave” election. It then decreased slightly to 8% nationally in 2022. In highly contested 2022 states, Latino vote share increased from 4% in 2014 to 5% in 2018, and then remained stable at 5% in 2022. Latino vote share decreased slightly in Nevada between 2018 to 2022 but remained stable across all other highly contested 2022 states.

Figure 3. Latino Share of the Electorate Nationally and in Heavily Contested States, 2014-2022

©Catalist

Breaking out 2022 trends by state, Latino voters comprised the largest share of the electorate in states where their registration shares were the highest. Notably, Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico are the only highly contested 2022 states with Latino vote shares higher than the national Latino vote share of 8% in 2022.

Figure 4. Latino Share of the Electorate by State, 2022

On desktop: scroll to zoom in and double click to return to initial view.
©Catalist

Latino vote share in the 2022 midterms was consistently lower than Latino registration share. Nationally, 36% of the registered Latino electorate voted in 2022; in highly contested states this figure was 40%. By comparison, the share of overall registrants who voted in 2022 was 51% nationally and 57% in highly contested states. More work remains not only to expand the electorate but also to activate higher participation among Latino voters.

Support

Between the 2020 Presidential election and 2022 House races, national two-party Democratic support among Latino voters remained steady at 62%. States with highly contested 2022 Senate and Gubernatorial elections experienced a one percentage point increase in Democratic support among Latino voters over this same period, from 61% in the 2020 Presidential race to 62% in these 2022 statewide races. Sizable gains in Democratic two-party support were especially evident in the Arizona Senate contest between Mark Kelly and Blake Masters, with Kelly receiving a 4 percentage point higher Democratic support share compared to the Biden and Harris ticket in 2020. 

Figure 5. Latino Democratic Support Nationally and in Highly Contested States, 2020-2022

For states with smaller Latino populations, we recommend viewing any shifts directionally and exercising caution when interpreting the magnitude of that movement.
©Catalist

Texas and Florida

In addition to considering Democratic support trends in highly contested 2022 states, we examine these trends in Texas and Florida, two states with large Latino populations and high-profile races up and down the ballot. Importantly, these states contain the Rio Grande Valley and Miami: regions that saw some of the largest Democratic support losses among Latino voters between the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. However, Texas and Florida’s Democratic support trends diverge between the 2020 Presidential election and the 2022 midterms. 

Whereas Florida continued to lose Democratic support among Latino voters – with especially concentrated losses in Miami-Dade County – Texas exhibited Democratic support gains among Latino voters, including in the Rio Grande Valley. In both states, shifts in Democratic support between the 2020 Presidential race and the 2022 midterms are largest in magnitude when considering gubernatorial races, which in both states contained high-profile candidates. However, shifts between 2020 and 2022 are also apparent when considering the Florida Senate contest and down ballot House races in both states.

Table 3: Democratic Support among Latino Voters in Florida and Texas

GovernorSenateHouse
Pres
2020
Gub
2022
DiffPres
2020
Sen
2022
DiffPres
2020
House
2022
Diff
Florida5142-95143-85146-5
Texas5658+2------5657+1
©Catalist

In both states, young Latino voters contributed to Democratic support shifts between the 2020 Presidential election and 2022 midterm races. In Florida, Gen Z and Millennial Latino voters exhibited substantial decreases in their Democratic support shares, from 56% support for Biden/Harris in 2020 to 46% support for the Crist/Hernández-Mats Democratic gubernatorial ticket in 2022. By contrast, in Texas Gen Z and Millennial Latino voters saw increases in Democratic support, from 58% support for Biden/Harris in 2020 to 66% support for O'Rourke in 2022.

Differences among voters based on national origin are another relevant factor for explaining Florida’s substantial Democratic support losses between the 2020 Presidential election and the 2022 midterms. While Catalist does not have sufficient 2022 sample sizes to make inferences regarding national origin, Equis Research’s 2022 Post Mortem digs into these trends in Florida. Cuban and Puerto Rican voters represent the majority of Latino vote share in Florida but there are increasing shares of voters from 18 Latin-American national origin groups, including Colombians, Dominicans, Mexicans and Venezuelans. Equis Research found that Democratic support losses continued among Cuban voters while Puerto Rican voters, who tend to support Democrats at higher levels, also saw turnout-driven support losses. Support losses also intensified among voters with Latin-American national origins.2See the Equis Research 2022 Post Mortem for additional detail.

Vote Share and Support by Demographic Subgroups

To explore differences within the Latino electorate, we consider vote share and Democratic support trends by age, gender, marital status, urbanity, and education.

We encourage readers to refer to the Data Guide associated with Catalist’s 2022 constituency reports to learn more about how support is modeled. When interpreting two-way Democratic support, it is important to note that shifts from election to election can result from individuals switching their vote from one party to another as well as compositional changes to the electorate, including Republican or Democratic voters in a subgroup turning out in different numbers from election to election. 

While vote share numbers come with relatively high confidence, support numbers come with more uncertainty, particularly at the state and local level and particularly in states with relatively small populations, so support numbers are shared here at an aggregated level.

The composition of the Latino electorate nationally largely mirrors that in states with highly contested Senate or Gubernatorial elections in 2022. There are a few exceptions: in highly contested states, the Latino electorate is younger and more suburban than it is nationally. These gaps are relatively minor, however, and so for each demographic sub-constituency we focus on the shape of the Latino electorate nationally. By contrast, we show Democratic support changes for each demographic sub-constituency both nationally and in highly contested states. 

Overall, the demographic makeup of the Latino electorate has changed across the past three midterm election cycles. Democratic support levels also vary among Latino voters by demographic factors such as age, gender, marital status, urbanity, and educational attainment. However, in many cases changes in Democratic support between the 2020 Presidential race and the 2022 midterms are relatively uniform across Latino voters even when broken down by demographic sub-constituency, suggesting that additional factors – such as geography or national origin – may be necessary to pinpoint where Democratic support shifted within the Latino electorate. 3Equis Research comes to a similar conclusion in their 2022 Post Mortem, finding that demographic factors such as age, gender, education, generation, and religion do not seem to explain trends across states.

Age

The Latino population skews younger than the US population overall. Consistent with this, the Latino electorate skews younger than the overall electorate. Younger Latino voters in the Millennial and Gen Z cohorts grew sharply as a share of the electorate between 2014 and 2022, making up 38% of the Latino electorate in 2022 nationally and – notably – nearly half of the Latino electorate in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Over this same period, the share of the Latino electorate composed of members of the Baby Boomer, Silent, and Greatest generations decreased. These trends reflect not only increased engagement among young Latino voters but also population growth – with Latino individuals accounting for 52% of US population growth between 2010 and 2021.4 Jens Manuel Krogstad, Jeffrey S. Passel, and Luis Noe-Bustamante, “Key facts about U.S. Latinos for National Hispanic Heritage Month,” Pew Research Center, September 23, 2022.

Figure 6. Shape of the Latino Electorate by Generation, 2014-2022

©Catalist

Nationally, Latino turnout was 1 million votes lower in the 2022 midterms compared to the 2018 “blue wave” election. However, in highly contested states both the number and age distribution of Latino voters in the 2022 midterms closely paralleled 2018 figures. Note, however, that only 20% of Latino voters were in highly contested 2022 states.

Figure 7a. Latino Voters in the 2022 Midterms by Birth Year – Nationally

©Catalist

Figure 7b. Latino Voters in the 2022 Midterms by Birth Year – Highly Contested States 5Note that Figure 7b has a different y-axis scale than Figure 7a to illustrate variation across midterm years within highly contested 2022 states.

©Catalist

Between the 2020 Presidential election and the 2022 midterms, Democratic support increased among Latino Gen Z and Millennial voters both nationally and in highly contested states. Nationally, Democratic support among younger Latinos increased from 65% in the 2020 Presidential race to 70% in 2022 House races. The magnitude of this support increase was smaller in states with highly contested Senate and Gubernatorial elections in 2022, from 64% in the 2020 Presidential race to 66% in these highly contested 2022 statewide races. Democratic support decreased among all other generational groups nationally over this period, though it remained steady in states with highly contested 2022 Senate and gubernatorial elections.

These gains in Democratic support among Gen Z and Millennial Latino voters represent a reversal of trends compared to changes between the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections, when Democratic support losses were largest among Gen Z and Millennial Latino voters out of any generational group.  

Table 4. Democratic Support Among Latino Voters by Generation

House:
National
Senate/Gov:
Highly Contested
Pres
2016
Pres
2020
20222016 to
2020
2020 to
2022
Pres
2016
Pres
2020
20222016 to
2020
2020 to
2022
Gen Z / Millennials756570-10+5736466-9+2
Gen X675857-9-1645757-7+0
Baby Boomers676159-6-2646060-4+0
Silent / Greatest666259-4-3656263-3+1
©Catalist

Gender

Latina women tend to vote at slightly higher rates than Latino men, which is reflected in their higher vote shares both nationally and in highly contested states. The Latino electorate became slightly more female between 2014 and the 2018 “blue wave” election, but it returned to its 2014 gender composition in 2022.

Figure 8. Shape of the Latino Electorate by Gender, 2014-2022

©Catalist

Between the 2020 Presidential race and the 2022 midterms, Democratic support both nationally and in highly contested states remained steady or slightly increased among Latina women and Latino men. However, among Latino voters there is a substantial Democratic support differential by gender. Two-party Democratic support shares are 10 percentage points higher among Latina women than among Latino men: 67% compared to 57% support nationally for 2022 Democratic House candidates.

Table 5. Democratic Support Among Latino Voters by Gender

House:
National
Senate/Gov:
Highly Contested
Pres
2020
2022DiffPres
2020
2022Diff
Female6667+16666+0
Male5657+15557+2
©Catalist

Marital Status

Single men and women increased as a share of the Latino electorate between 2014 and 2022, while married men and women decreased as a share of the Latino electorate over this same period. Much of the change in the composition of the Latino electorate by marital status unfolded between 2014 and 2018. We are confident in attributing these changes to compositional shifts in the Latino electorate — meaning who chose to vote — as opposed to changes in marriage rates in the overall population. While marriage rates are declining, the trend is very gradual and does not have an outsized impact on recent midterm election years. We are also confident that these changes do not solely reflect participation shifts among young Latino voters, because slightly less than half of single Latino voters fell into the Millennial and Gen Z categories in 2022.

Figure 9. Shape of the Latino Electorate by Marital Status, 2014-2022

©Catalist

Both nationally and in highly contested states, Democratic support increased among single Latino men from 60% in the 2020 Presidential race to 63% in the 2022 midterms. Democratic support remained relatively stable among married Latino men and among single and married Latina women over this same period. In absolute terms, levels of Democratic support were highest among single Latina women and lowest among married Latino men – with national Democratic support shares of 72% and 51% respectively in 2022 House races. 

Table 6. Democratic Support Among Latino Voters by Marital Status

House:
National
Senate/Gov:
Highly Contested
Pres
2020
2022DiffPres
2020
2022Diff
Single Female7172+17172+1
Single Male6063+36063+3
Married Female6060+05959+0
Married Male5251-15152+1
©Catalist

Urbanity

Between 2014 and 2022, the Latino electorate became increasingly suburban. In 2022, slightly more than half of Latino voters were categorized as suburban.

Figure 10. Shape of the Latino Electorate by Urbanity, 2014-2022

©Catalist

Democratic support shares increased between the 2020 Presidential election and the 2022 midterms among urban Latino voters both nationally and across highly contested states. Over this same period, Democratic support shares remained steady or slightly decreased among suburban and rural Latino voters. 

Also notable are differences in levels of Democratic support among these Latino sub-groups. For 2022 House contests, national two-party Democratic support was 72% among urban Latino voters, 59% among suburban Latino voters, and 43% among rural Latino voters.

Table 7: Democratic Support Among Latino Voters by Urbanity

House:
National
Senate/Gov:
Highly Contested
Pres
2020
2022DiffPres
2020
2022Diff
Urban7072+27174+3
Suburban5859+16061+1
Rural4543-24848+0
©Catalist

Education

Slightly more than one-third of Latino voters in the past three midterm elections had four-year college degrees. Relative to 2014, voters with four-year college degrees composed a slightly smaller share of the Latino electorate in 2018 and a slightly larger share of the Latino electorate in 2022.

Figure 11. Shape of the Latino Electorate by Education, 2014-2022

©Catalist

There are not substantial differences in Democratic support levels or trends between Latino voters with and without four-year college degrees. Both nationally and in highly contested states, Democratic support remained stable and at similar levels among both groups between the 2020 Presidential election and the 2022 midterms. 

Among voters without four-year college degrees, stability or slight increases in Democratic support are visible not only among Latino voters but also overall – suggesting that these changes may reflect broader trends in the composition of the Democratic coalition instead of trends specific to Latino voters.

Table 8. Democratic Support Among Latino Voters by Education

House:
National
Senate/Gov:
Highly Contested
Pres
2020
2022DiffPres
2020
2022Diff
Non-College6162+16163+2
College6263+16161+0
©Catalist

Primary Participation

Primary participation can sometimes be an indicator of early interest in an election and it is another important touch point for campaigns and organizations to engage voters. It is important to note, however, that interpreting primary participation requires attention to each state’s specific electoral context. Because Latino voters as an aggregated group lean somewhat Democratic, the presence of competitive Democratic primaries may boost Latino participation, whereas uncontested Democratic primaries may not motivate turnout. Additionally, while contested primaries can reveal important clues regarding enthusiasm for the general election, an absence of an active primary usually doesn’t warrant concern for general election enthusiasm.

Latino primary vote share remained stable in 2022 compared to 2018 both nationally and in highly contested 2022 states. Disaggregating by state reveals some variations: most notably, primary vote share was up from 2018 in Nevada. Despite this rise in Latino primary vote share, Latino general election vote share decreased in Nevada between 2018 and 2022 – highlighting the potential limitations of using primary vote share to predict general election trends.

Figure 12. Latino Share of the Primary Electorate Nationally and in Highly Contested States, 2014-2022

Outlines around Arizona, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin indicate that in these highly contested 2022 states, there was at least one open statewide seat and a contested primary of non-incumbents.
©Catalist

Vote Method

The 2020 general election was anomalous because it unfolded during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, meaning that vote by mail rates were exceptionally high. Rates of voting by mail or early in-person decreased between 2020 and 2022 nationally and in highly contested states. Among the highly contested states that report disaggregated counts of vote by mail and early in person voting, there were no universal trends. In Colorado and Nevada, vote by mail rates increased between 2020 and 2022, both overall and among Latino voters. In these states, changes to laws and election practices likely contributed to these shifts. 

None of the highly contested states that report disaggregated vote method counts saw increases in early in-person voting among Latino voters between 2020 and 2022, even as Georgia, Kansas, and New Mexico increased their overall rates of early in-person voting during  this period. This finding suggests that campaigns encouraging early in-person voting may not be reaching Latino audiences at the same rates as other groups, raising opportunities to expand early in-person voting in the 2024 cycle.

Figure 13a. Composition of Vote Methods among Latino Voters, 2020-2022

©Catalist

Figure 13b. Composition of Vote Methods among All Voters, 2020-2022

©Catalist

What Happened 2022 Constituency Reports

10/23/23 — Figure 1 has been updated since publication. In the original version, Figure 4 had been shown twice. Thank you to Phil Keisling for pointing this out.

Contributors

Lead authors. Kirsten Walters, Data Scientist; Ben Gross, Analyst

Project lead. Hillary Anderson, Director of Analytics; Haris Aqeel, Senior Advisor

Editor. Aaron Huertas, Communications Director

Graphics and data engineering. Kirsten Walters, Data Scientist

Catalist Executives. Michael Frias, CEO; Molly Norton, Chief Client Officer

Catalist Analytics Team. Janay Cody PhD, Senior Advisor for Data Equity; Jonathan Robinson, Director of Research

Catalist Data Team. Russ Rampersad, Chief Data Officer; Lauren O’Brien, Deputy Chief Data Officer; Dan Buttrey, Director of Data Acquisition

Many current and former staff members have also contributed to this report through their work building and maintaining the Catalist file. These insights would not be possible with the long-term investment Catalist has made in people and data since 2006.

Finally, Catalist is deeply grateful to the clients, partners and other community leaders who offered thoughtful review and feedback throughout the process, especially: 

  • EMILY’S List: Melissa Williams, Vice President Independent Expenditure
  • EquisLabs: Carlos Odio, Co-Founder and Senior Vice President of Research; and team
  • HIT Strategies: Terrance Woodbury, CEO and Co-Founder; and team
  • NAACP in partnership with GSSA:  Derrick Johnson, President and CEO NAACP; Dr. Albert Yates, Principal GSSA, Catalist board member
  • Planned Parenthood Action Fund: Rachel Hall; Director, Data, Analytics and Research
  • Strategic Victory Fund: Stephanie Schriock

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