What Happened™ in 2022
Constituency Reports: Young Voters
Young voters played a remarkable role in the 2022 midterms, demonstrating high participation and increased Democratic support. In fact, 2022 marks the first time that young people's Democratic support has been greater than 60% for two consecutive midterm elections, and now includes a midterm with a Democratic incumbent president.
In this report, we examine young voters’ participation using two overlapping but distinct definitions. The first is by generation: we define young voters as Gen Z and Millennials. 1Catalist follows the Pew Research Center’s birth year definitions for generational cohorts. Millennial birth years span 1981 to 1996 while Gen Z birth years range from 1997 to 2012. The second is by age cohort: we define young voters as individuals who were in the 18-29 cohort in 2022 compared with individuals who were in the same age group in previous elections.
While many analyses compare different individuals in the same age cohort over time to assess the role of younger voters, we strongly urge practitioners and analysts also to take a generational view given that political identities formed early tend to persist as individuals age, and individuals move through different age cohorts over time. Thus, the size of young voters as defined by generation differs significantly from those defined by age cohort. Right now, the final tranches of the relatively large Baby Boomer generation are aging into the 65+ age category typically used in polling and elections analysis. Without a generational lens, it is easy to overestimate electoral participation among older voters while underestimating the impact of younger voters.2Baby Boomers are defined here as having birth years from 1946 to 1964. From 2018 to 2022, for example, a full 9% of voters “graduated” from the 45-64 age group to the 65+ age group in the intervening four years. This age range’s 5% increase in vote share is simply a function of aging, and will continue to shift age range based analyses as the large Baby Boomer generation moves into their senior years.
What Happened 2022 Report Series
Table 1. Share of Electorate and Democratic Support by Generation and Age Group
| House: National | Senate/Gov: Highly Contested | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percent of Voters | Dem Support (Two-Way) | Percent of Voters | Dem Support (Two-Way) | |||||||||
| Group | 2018 | 2022 | 2018 to 2022 | Pres 2020 | 2022 | 2020 to 2022 | 2018 | 2022 | 2018 to 2022 | Pres 2020 | 2022 | 2020 to 2022 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | +0 | 52 | 49 | -3 | 100 | 100 | +0 | 50 | 51 | +1 |
| Gen Z / Millennials | 23 | 26 | +3 | 60 | 62 | +1 | 23 | 27 | +4 | 59 | 60 | +1 |
| Gen X | 25 | 26 | +0 | 50 | 47 | -3 | 25 | 26 | +0 | 48 | 49 | +1 |
| Baby Boomers | 38 | 38 | -0 | 48 | 44 | -4 | 38 | 37 | -1 | 47 | 48 | +1 |
| Silent / Greatest | 14 | 10 | -3 | 46 | 42 | -5 | 14 | 10 | -4 | 44 | 46 | +2 |
| 18-29 | 12 | 10 | -2 | 62 | 65 | +3 | 12 | 11 | -1 | 60 | 63 | +2 |
| 30-44 | 21 | 20 | -1 | 57 | 58 | +1 | 21 | 20 | -0 | 56 | 57 | +2 |
| 45-64 | 38 | 36 | -2 | 48 | 45 | -3 | 38 | 36 | -2 | 46 | 47 | +1 |
| 65+ | 29 | 33 | +5 | 48 | 44 | -4 | 29 | 32 | +4 | 47 | 48 | +1 |
Many young voters who voted in 2018 and 2020 to elect Democrats continued to do the same in 2022. Young voters’ current strong Democratic lean has not always been the norm: From the late 1970s to the early 2000s, young Democratic support was routinely evenly split between the parties, according to exit polls. While support rose dramatically in the 2006 midterms amidst opposition to the Iraq War and in 2008 during President Obama’s first election, the midterm years of 2010 and 2014 saw a substantial drop in support among young voters, in part due to young Democrats sitting out those elections but also due to across-the-board declines in support for Democrats in the 2010 Republican “Tea Party” wave year.
House vote and Heavily Contested vs. Less Contested Statewide Races
Normally, midterm elections involve a national swing in one direction, usually against an incumbent party. But in 2022, with Democrats overperformed in states with heavily contested statewide elections. Catalist’s analysis calculates modeled support for House races, which largely reflect national trends, as well as top-of-ticket statewide races for governor and Senate. Using the Cook Political Report's pre-election rating of races as Toss-Up or Lean, heavily contested races include 64 House races; Senate races in Arizona, Georgia, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and Gubernatorial races in Arizona, Georgia, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon and Wisconsin. Read more in the Catalist constituency report Data Guide.
Figure 1. General Election Democratic Support among 18 - 29 Year Olds
Democratic support among young voters stems partially from the ethnic and racial diversity of this group, as America becomes more diverse over time. But that is not the whole story. Democratic support was higher among young voters of color, both nationally and in highly contested Gubernatorial and Senate races. However, between 2020 and 2022 young Black voters saw substantial support drop offs from their uniquely high support levels. Meanwhile, support among young white voters, who composed 70% of the 2022 Gen Z and Millennial electorate, also rose between the 2020 Presidential election and 2022 races. Additionally, there continue to be substantial differences in levels of Democratic support among some demographic groups of young voters – with especially low levels of Democratic support among married men and rural voters and especially high levels of Democratic support among single women and urban voters.
Not only do young voters support Democrats at high levels, but they also represent a growing share of the electorate. Gen Z and Millennial registrations and vote share doubled between 2014 and 2022, as Gen Z voters aged into the electorate. Registrations and vote share also increased among 18-29 year old voters over this period. Additionally, young voters turn out for key elections such as Kansas’s 2022 primary, where reproductive rights were on the ballot and young voters composed a uniquely high share of the electorate.
Finally, the composition of the young electorate shifted along some demographic dimensions and remained stable along others across the last three midterm elections. Relative to 2014 and 2018, the 2022 young electorate included higher shares of AAPI and Latino voters, non-married voters, suburban voters, and voters without four-year college degrees. Over this same period the composition of the young electorate remained stable by gender.
Data Guide
Catalist’s What Happened 2022 Constituency Report Data Guide includes definitions, method and other important information about these reports.
Voter Registration
The number of Gen Z and Millennial registrants nearly doubled from 46.5 million in 2014 to 84.1 million in 2022. Growth in youth registration outpaced overall registration trends, partially driven by Gen Z voters aging into the electorate. As a result, the Gen Z and Millennial share of all registrants grew from 25% in 2014 to 39% in 2022.
Additionally, we can disaggregate cross-cycle registration increases into new registrant gains and dropped registrant losses. Trends in new registrations further substantiate the growing nature of the registered Gen Z and Millennial population. The 2016 and 2020 Presidential election cycles especially saw spikes in new Gen Z and Millennial registrants, but midterm election cycles also produced steady increases in registration among potential young voters. The number of new Gen Z and Millennial registrants was 7.6 million in the 2014 midterm cycle, and that number increased to 11.4 million new Gen Z and Millennial registrants in the 2022 midterm cycle.
New registrant gains were somewhat offset by dropped registrants. However, the number of Gen Z and Millennial registrants dropped between each midterm election grew only slightly in absolute terms between 2014 and 2022 and decreased as a share of all dropped registrants over this same period. These drops include registrants moving or passing away, as well as registrants who are removed from voter rolls.
Table 2a. Trends in Gen Z and Millennial Registration, 2014-2022
| 2014 | 2016 | 2018 | 2020 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gen Z and Millennial Registrants | 46.5M | 57.8M | 65.2M | 77.8M | 84.1M |
| Gen Z and Millennial Registrant Share | 24.9% | 29.3% | 32.3% | 36.2% | 38.8% |
| New Gen Z and Millennial Registrants | 7.6M | 15.7M | 12.3M | 17.5M | 11.4M |
| New Gen Z and Millennial Registrant Share | 16.4% | 27.2% | 18.9% | 22.5% | 13.6% |
| Dropped Gen Z and Millennial Registrants | 3.8M | 4.4M | 4.9M | 4.9M | 5.1M |
| Dropped Gen Z and Millennial Registrant Share | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% |
When analyzing the electorate by age cohort rather than generation, registration activity was considerably lower for individuals who were 18-29 in the 2022 midterm cycle compared to the same age group in the 2018 “blue wave” youth-fueled midterm cycle. By total registration, the age cohort is less than half the size compared to Gen Z and Millennials overall but in terms of new registrations in 2022, accounts for less than 4% of new Gen Z and Millennial potential voters. Combined with the fact that 1.8 million voters aged 18-29 dropped off the rolls in the 2022 cycle, the overall registered population of 18-19 year olds decreased by 1.5 million when compared to individuals who were part of this cohort in 2020.
Table 2b: Trends in Registration among 18-29 Year Olds, 2014-2022
| 2014 | 2016 | 2018 | 2020 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18-29 Year Old Registrants | 33.9M | 37.7M | 37.9M | 41.0M | 39.5M |
| 18-29 Year Old Registrant Share | 18.1% | 19.1% | 18.8% | 19.1% | 18.3% |
| New 18-29 Year Old Registrants | 0.1M | 6.2M | 2.5M | 5.1M | 0.4M |
| New 18-29 Year Old Registrant Share | 0.4% | 16.6% | 6.6% | 12.5% | 1.0% |
| Dropped 18-29 Year Old Registrants | 2.5M | 2.4M | 2.4M | 2.0M | 1.8M |
| Dropped 18-29 Year Old Registrant Share | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.6% |
Levels of Gen Z and Millennial registration vary across states, largely in proportion to the size of Gen Z and Millennial citizen voting age populations (CVAP). Among the states with highly contested Senate or Gubernatorial elections in 2022, young registrant shares were highest in Colorado, Georgia, and Nevada, comprising 44%, 43%, and 42% of each state’s registrants respectively. Kansas, a state where 2022 primary voters overwhelmingly opposed a ban on abortion, also had a high young registrant share of 40%. A similar picture presents itself when looking at 18-29 year olds.
Figure 2a: Gen Z and Millennial Registration Share by State, 2022
Figure 2b: 18-29 Year Old Registration Share by State, 2022
After Republican-appointed justices on the Supreme Court overturned long-standing abortion rights over the summer through their decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, Catalist’s national What Happened report found that there was a spike in women registrants relative to men, indicating that the decision played an important role in shaping the 2022 electorate.
Figure 3a: Percent of Voter Registrations by Gen Z and Millennial Women Compared to all Women, 2022
Figure 3b: Percent of Voter Registrations by 18-29 Year Old Women Compared to all Women, 2022
This spike in registrations was especially concentrated among young women. Normally, new registrations would be relatively evenly split between men and women, but Millennial and Gen Z women continued to register at relatively higher rates than Millennial and Gen Z men throughout the cycle. The spike was sharpest between the month preceding and the month following the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs, when Gen Z and Millennial women increased as a share of total voter registrations by 3.4 percentage points. Among all women, the increase was 2.6 percentage points. For 18-29 year olds only, the spike was slightly higher. As stated here and in all other constituency reports, there are multiple lines of evidence that voters of all age cohorts were mobilized against Republicans advocating for anti-abortion policies, but this trend was particularly strong among younger voters.
General Election Trends
Vote Share
Nationally, the Gen Z and Millennial cohorts grew from 12% of voters in 2014 to 23% of voters in 2018 and 26% of voters in 2022. Vote share trends among young voters in states with highly contested 2022 Senate and Gubernatorial contests closely mirrored those nationally, though with small amounts of state-to-state variation. Among these highly contested states, Georgia reached the highest Gen Z and Millennial vote share of 29% in 2022, with Michigan and Wisconsin closely behind at 28%.
Gen Z and Millennial voters also had exceptional turnout, with young voters in heavily contested states exceeding their 2018 turnout by 6% among those who were eligible in both elections.
Figure 4a: Gen Z and Millennial Share of the Electorate Nationally and in Highly Contested States, 2014-2022
Takeaways from analyses of vote share trends slightly differ when we define young voters using age ranges instead of generations. Nationally, the share of the electorate comprised of 18-29 year olds dropped from 12% in the 2018 youth-fueled “blue wave” midterm to 10% in 2022. In highly contested states, there were similarly small declines, with the exception of Michigan and Pennsylvania, where vote share held steady. As discussed earlier, the movement of Baby Boomers into the oldest age categories can give the appearance of other age cohorts shrinking.
Figure 4b. 18-29 Share of the Electorate Nationally and in Highly Contested States, 2014-2022
Most states’ Gen Z and Millennial vote shares in the 2022 midterms were lower than their registration shares. Nationally, 34% of the registered Gen Z and Millennial electorate voted in 2022; in highly contested states this figure was 39%. By age cohort, nationally 29% of the registered 18-29 year old electorate voted in 2022; in highly contested states this figure was 34%. By comparison, the share of overall registrants who voted in 2022 was 51% nationally and 57% in highly contested states. More work remains not only to expand the electorate but also to activate higher participation among young voters.
Figure 5a. Gen Z and Millennial Share of the Electorate by State, 2022
Figure 5b. 18-29 Year Old Share of the Electorate by State, 2022
Support
Either of the definitions for young voters deployed in this report highlight very high levels of support for Democrats in the Trump and Biden eras. Between the 2020 Presidential election and 2022 House contests, national two-party Democratic support among Gen Z and Millennial voters increased from 60% to 62%. Gen Z and Millennial voters saw a smaller increase in Democratic support between the 2020 Presidential race and 2022 Senate and Gubernatorial races in highly contested 2022 states, from 59% to 60%.
Breaking down Democratic support trends across highly contested 2022 Senate and Gubernatorial races, gains in Democratic support since the 2020 Presidential contest among Gen Z and Millennial voters were especially sizable in the Michigan Gubernatorial race and the Arizona, Ohio, and Pennsylvania Senate elections. Meanwhile, losses in Democratic support among Gen Z and Millennial voters were evident in the Georgia and Nevada Gubernatorial races.
Figure 6a: Gen Z and Millennial Democratic Support Nationally and in Highly Contested States, 2020-2022
When we instead define young voters by age cohort, we find that Democratic support shifts among 18-29 year old voters between the 2020 Presidential election and the 2022 midterms generally followed the same direction as those among Gen Z and Millennial voters. However, 18-29 year old voters started with higher Biden/Harris support levels in 2020 compared to the larger Gen Z and Millennial group. Overall, Democratic support among 18-29 year old voters nationally increased from 62% in the 2020 Presidential election to 65% in 2022 House races. This high rate of Democratic support continues to highlight the role of 18-29 year olds as a key part of a winning coalition for the party.
Figure 6b: 18-29 Democratic Support Nationally and in Highly Contested States, 2020-2022
Vote Share and Support by Demographic Subgroups
To explore the shape of the youth electorate both by generation and age cohort, we consider vote share and Democratic support trends by race, gender, marital status, urbanity, and education.
We encourage readers to refer to the Data Guide associated with each constituency report to explore more about how support is modeled. When interpreting two-way Democratic support, it is important to note that shifts from election to election can result from individuals switching their vote from one party to another as well as compositional changes to the electorate, including Republican or Democratic voters in a subgroup turning out in different numbers from election to election.
While vote share numbers come with relatively high confidence, support numbers come with more uncertainty, particularly at the state and local level and particularly in states with relatively small populations, so support numbers are shared here at an aggregated level.
The composition of the younger electorate nationally generally mirrors that in states with highly contested Senate or Gubernatorial elections in 2022. There are a few exceptions: in highly contested states, the young electorate contains a larger share of white voters and a smaller share of Latino voters and is also less urban and more suburban compared to the national electorate. We highlight these differences where relevant but our visualizations focus on the national shape of the youth electorate. By contrast, we show Democratic support changes for each demographic sub-constituency both nationally and in highly contested states.
Race
Over the last three midterm elections, white voters comprised slightly more than two-thirds of the national Gen Z and Millennial electorate. Black voters decreased as a share of this electorate, from 15% in 2014 to 11% in 2022. Over this same period, the share of the Gen Z and Millennial electorate composed of Latino and AAPI voters increased, from 9% to 12% and from 3% to 5% respectively. In highly contested 2022 states, the share of the Gen Z and Millennial electorate composed of white voters was about 5 percentage points higher than nationally. Comparatively lower Latino and AAPI vote shares offset this higher white vote share.
Figure 7a. Shape of the Gen Z and Millennial Electorate by Race, 2014-2022
Comparing 18-29 year olds in 2022 with those in the same cohort in the previous two midterm elections presents a similar picture, with the slight difference that the 18-29 year old electorate in 2018 and 2022 contains a lower share of white voters and a higher share of Latino voters compared to the broader Gen Z and Millennial group..
Figure 7b. Shape of the 18-29 Year Old Electorate by Race, 2014-2022
Between the 2020 Presidential election and the 2022 midterms, Democratic support increased nationally among white and Latino Gen Z and Millennial voters and decreased among Black and AAPI Gen Z and Millennial voters. Democratic support grew by about 5 percentage points between the 2020 Presidential contest and 2022 House races among young white and Latino voters, from 52% to 56% and 65% to 70% respectively. AAPI Gen Z and Millennial voters showed a small decrease in Democratic support, from 73% Biden/Harris support in 2020 to 71% support for Democratic House candidates in 2022.
Meanwhile, Black Gen Z and Millennial voters saw the largest decrease in Democratic support, from 91% support for Biden/Harris to 84% support for Democratic House candidates in 2022. Despite this decrease, however, Black Gen Z and Millennial voters continued to support Democratic candidates at the highest rate of all Gen Z and Millennial racial groups.
In highly contested 2022 states, for each racial subgroup of Gen Z and Millennial voters, Democratic support trends followed the same direction but were of a smaller magnitude.
Table 3a: Democratic Support Among Gen Z and Millennial Voters by Race
| House: National | Senate/Gov: Highly Contested | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pres 2020 | 2022 | Diff | Pres 2020 | 2022 | Diff | |
| White | 52 | 56 | +4 | 51 | 54 | +3 |
| Black | 91 | 84 | -7 | 92 | 89 | -3 |
| Hispanic/Latino | 65 | 70 | +5 | 64 | 66 | +2 |
| AAPI | 73 | 71 | -2 | 71 | 70 | -1 |
By age cohort, two-way Democratic support shares followed similar trends between the 2020 Presidential election and the 2022 midterms both nationally and in highly contested states, increasing among white and Latino 18-29 year old voters and decreasing among Black 18-29 year old voters. Our data suggest that shifts among 18-29 year old voters were of a slightly greater magnitude and started from slightly higher 2020 Biden/Harris support levels relative to the broader Gen Z and Millennial group.
AAPI voters are the one racial group for whom our data suggest different directional trends when defined by age cohort instead of generation. Our evidence suggests that Democratic support shares increased among AAPI 18-29 year old voters nationally from 75% Biden/Harris support in 2020 to 78% support for House candidates in 2022. By contrast, among AAPI Gen Z and Millennial voters, our data suggest that over this same period Democratic support decreased from 73% to 71%. There is uncertainty around these numbers, however, stemming from this group’s relatively small population size, especially among the subset of states with highly contested elections.
Table 3b: Democratic Support Among Voters Aged 18-29 by Race
| House: National | Senate/Gov: Highly Contested | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pres 2020 | 2022 | Diff | Pres 2020 | 2022 | Diff | |
| White | 52 | 56 | +4 | 51 | 54 | +3 |
| Black | 91 | 84 | -7 | 92 | 89 | -3 |
| Hispanic/Latino | 65 | 70 | +5 | 64 | 66 | +2 |
| AAPI | 73 | 71 | -2 | 71 | 70 | -1 |
Gender
Within the Gen Z and Millennial electorate, women tend to vote at higher rates than men, as is reflected in their higher vote shares both nationally and across highly contested states. Relative to 2014, Gen Z and Millennial women composed a slightly larger share of Gen Z and Millennial voters in the 2018 “blue wave” election and a slightly smaller share of Gen Z and Millennial voters in the 2022 midterms. A nearly identical picture appears when considering vote share for 18-29 year olds compared to individuals who were in this cohort in previous elections.
Figure 8a. Shape of the Gen Z and Millennial Electorate by Gender, 2014-2022
Figure 8b. Shape of the 18-29 Electorate by Gender, 2014-2022
Between the 2020 Presidential election and the 2022 midterms, Democratic support increased among Gen Z and Millennial women both nationally and in highly contested states by two to three percentage points. Over this same period, Democratic support remained stable both nationally and in highly contested states among Gen Z and Millennial men. In 2020 Biden/Harris support levels among Gen Z and Millennial men were about 10 percentage points lower than those among Gen Z and Millennial women both nationally and in highly contested states.
Table 4a. Democratic Support Among Gen Z and Millennial Voters by Gender
| House: National | Senate/Gov: Highly Contested | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pres 2020 | 2022 | Diff | Pres 2020 | 2022 | Diff | |
| Female | 65 | 67 | +2 | 63 | 66 | +3 |
| Male | 55 | 56 | +1 | 53 | 53 | +0 |
Among the youngest voters as defined by the 18 to 29 year age group, Democratic support shares increased by similar margins between the 2020 Presidential election and the 2022 midterms, though 18-29 year old voters started from a higher 2020 baseline. Similarly to the broader Gen Z and Millennial group, 18-29 year old women’s Democratic support shares were about 10 percentage points higher than their male counterparts.
Table 4b. Democratic Support Among Voters Aged 18-29 by Gender
| House: National | Senate/Gov: Highly Contested | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pres 2020 | 2022 | Diff | Pres 2020 | 2022 | Diff | |
| Female | 67 | 70 | +3 | 65 | 69 | +4 |
| Male | 56 | 58 | +2 | 54 | 55 | +1 |
Marital Status
Single men and women increased as a share of the Gen Z and Millennial electorate between 2014 and 2022, while married men and women decreased as a share of the Gen Z and Millennial electorate over this same period. We are confident in attributing these changes to compositional shifts in the Gen Z and Millennial electorate as opposed to changes in marriage rates — while marriage rates are declining, the trend is very gradual and does not have an outsized impact on temporally proximate midterm election years. These trends hold when considering 18-29 year olds in 2022 compared to individuals in the same age bracket in previous midterms, though this younger group exhibits even sharper increases in the share of the single electorate and decreases in the share of the married electorate.
Figure 9a. Shape of the Gen Z and Millennial Electorate by Marital Status, 2014-2022
Figure 9b. Shape of the 18-29 Electorate by Marital Status, 2014-2022
Both nationally and in highly contested 2022 states, Democratic support remained stable or increased between the 2020 Presidential election and the 2022 midterms among Gen Z and Millennial married women, single women, and single men. Over this same period, both nationally and in highly contested 2022 states Democratic support declined by two percentage points among Gen Z and Millennial married men.
Also notable is that Gen Z and Millennial marital status cohorts started from different levels of Biden/Harris support in 2020. Democratic support in the 2020 Presidential election was strongest among single Gen Z and Millennial women, with 69% Biden/Harris support nationally, and weakest among married Gen Z and Millennial men, with 51% Biden/Harris support nationally. This gap of almost 20 percentage points reveals substantial differences by marital status in patterns of partisan support among Gen Z and Millennial voters, reflecting trends in the electorate overall.
Each of these trends holds when we consider the 18-29 year old cohort instead.
Table 5a. Democratic Support Among Gen Z and Millennial Voters by Marital Status
| House: National | Senate/Gov: Highly Contested | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pres 2020 | 2022 | Diff | Pres 2020 | 2022 | Diff | |
| Single Female | 69 | 72 | +3 | 68 | 71 | +3 |
| Single Male | 57 | 60 | +3 | 56 | 57 | +1 |
| Married Female | 58 | 59 | +1 | 56 | 58 | +2 |
| Married Male | 51 | 49 | -2 | 49 | 47 | -2 |
Table 5b. Democratic Support Among Voters Aged 18-29 by Marital Status
| House: National | Senate/Gov: Highly Contested | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pres 2020 | 2022 | Diff | Pres 2020 | 2022 | Diff | |
| Single Female | 68 | 72 | +4 | 67 | 71 | +4 |
| Single Male | 56 | 59 | +3 | 55 | 56 | +1 |
| Married Female | 62 | 64 | +2 | 60 | 63 | +3 |
| Married Male | 54 | 53 | -1 | 52 | 50 | -2 |
Urbanity
Between the 2014 midterms and the 2018 “blue wave” election, the national Gen Z and Millennial electorate became less rural. Then, between 2018 and 2022, the national Gen Z and Millennial electorate’s rural vote share remained stable while its urban vote share decreased to 2014 levels and its suburban vote share experienced a proportional increase. In highly contested 2022 states, the Gen Z and Millennial electorate is slightly more suburban and rural than nationally. Overall, 24% of the national Gen Z and Millennial electorate was categorized as urban in 2022, compared to 17% in highly contested 2022 states.
These patterns were nearly identical when examining trends for the 18-29 cohort in each of these midterms.
Figure 10a. Shape of the Gen Z and Millennial Electorate by Urbanity, 2014-2022
Figure 10b. Shape of the 18-29 Electorate by Urbanity, 2014-2022
Both nationally and in highly contested states, regardless of whether we define younger voters by generation or by age cohort, support increased among urban voters between the 2020 Presidential election and the 2022 midterms. Over the same period, Democratic support remained stable among suburban and rural both nationally and in states with highly contested 2022 Senate and Gubernatorial elections.
Our data also suggest that urban, suburban, and rural voters started from different levels of 2020 Democratic support, though there is considerable uncertainty around these estimates due to smaller subgroup sample sizes. Biden/Harris support shares among urban Gen Z and Millennial voters nationally were 77%, compared to 61% for suburban Gen Z and Millennial voters and 39% for rural Gen Z and Millennial voters. This range highlights considerable variation within the Democratic support patterns of young voters, suggesting that geographic effects play a pivotal role for not just younger voters but overall as the electorate became more polarized by urbanity in 2016 onwards.
Table 6a. Democratic Support Among Gen Z and Millennial Voters by Urbanity
| House: National | Senate/Gov: Highly Contested | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pres 2020 | 2022 | Diff | Pres 2020 | 2022 | Diff | |
| Urban | 77 | 80 | +3 | 75 | 77 | +2 |
| Suburban | 61 | 62 | +1 | 62 | 62 | +0 |
| Rural | 39 | 38 | -1 | 40 | 39 | -1 |
Table 6b. Democratic Support Among Voters Aged 18-29 by Urbanity
| House: National | Senate/Gov: Highly Contested | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pres 2020 | 2022 | Diff | Pres 2020 | 2022 | Diff | |
| Urban | 77 | 81 | +4 | 76 | 79 | +3 |
| Suburban | 62 | 65 | +3 | 63 | 64 | +1 |
| Rural | 41 | 42 | +1 | 42 | 42 | +0 |
Education
The share of Gen Z and Millennial voters with four-year college degrees nationally decreased from 45% in 2014 to 42% in 2022. This decrease may be partially attributable to increasing levels of electoral participation among college students, who have not yet completed four-year college degrees, as suggested by the fact that the share of 18-29 year old voters without four-year college degrees increased sharply from 56% in 2014 to 71% in 2022. Among all generational cohorts, however, Gen Z and Millennial voters have the second highest rates of four-year college completion after Gen X voters.
Figure 11a. Shape of the Gen Z and Millennial Electorate by Education, 2014-2022
Figure 11b. Shape of the 18-29 Year Old Electorate by Education, 2014-2022
Between the 2020 Presidential election and the 2022 midterms, Democratic support increased among Gen Z and Millennial voters without college degrees and decreased among Gen Z and Millennial voters with college degrees, though voters with four-year college degrees started from higher 2020 support levels. Democratic support shifts between Biden/Harris 2020 and highly contested Senate and Gubernatorial races in 2022 were larger in magnitude than national-level shifts between Biden/Harris 2020 and House races in 2022. However, both nationally and in highly contested states these trends suggest decreased levels of education polarization among Gen Z and Millennial voters relative to the 2020 Presidential election.
Democratic support trends differ slightly among 18-29 year old voters, who witnessed stability or increases in Democratic support shares among both college and non-college voters between the 2020 Presidential and 2022 midterm elections.
Table 7a. Democratic Support Among Gen Z and Millennial Voters by Education
| House: National | Senate/Gov: Highly Contested | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pres 2020 | 2022 | Diff | Pres 2020 | 2022 | Diff | |
| Non-College | 53 | 50 | -3 | 51 | 54 | +3 |
| College | 63 | 61 | -2 | 62 | 62 | +0 |
Table 7b. Democratic Support Among Voters Aged 18-29 by Education
| House: National | Senate/Gov: Highly Contested | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pres 2020 | 2022 | Diff | Pres 2020 | 2022 | Diff | |
| Non-College | 58 | 61 | +3 | 57 | 60 | +3 |
| College | 71 | 72 | +1 | 70 | 70 | +0 |
Primary Participation
Primary participation can sometimes indicate early interest in an election and is another important touch point for campaigns and organizations to engage voters. It is important to note, however, that interpreting primary participation requires attention to each state’s specific electoral context. The presence of competitive Democratic primaries may boost Gen Z and Millennial participation because young voters in aggregate lean Democratic, whereas uncontested Democratic primaries may not motivate turnout. While contested primaries can reveal important clues regarding enthusiasm for the general election, an absence of an active primary usually doesn’t warrant concern for general election enthusiasm.
Gen Z and Millennial primary vote share increased nationally from 15% in 2018 to 18% in 2022 and increased in highly contested states from 13% in 2018 to 18% in 2022. Gains in young voters’ primary vote shares were especially pronounced in Kansas, from 13% in 2018 to 30% in 2022. The Kansas 2022 primary included the first vote on the right to an abortion since the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs, which may have contributed to elevated participation among young voters.
These patterns held strong for 18-29 year old voters as well.
Figure 12a. Gen Z and Millennial Share of the Primary Electorate Nationally and in Highly Contested States, 2014-2022
Figure 12b. 18-29 Year Old Share of the Primary Electorate Nationally and in Highly Contested States, 2014-2022
Vote Method
The 2020 general election was anomalous because it unfolded during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, meaning that vote by mail rates were exceptionally high. Rates of voting early in person or by mail decreased between 2020 and 2022 nationally and in highly contested states. However, in the highly contested states that report disaggregated counts of voting by mail, early in person, and on election day, young voters exhibited different vote method trends compared to voters overall.
In 2022, young voters continued to vote on election day at higher rates than all voters. However, rates of voting by mail and early in person were lower among young voters than all voters. Among all voters, Nevada saw growth in the share of votes cast by mail between 2020 and 2022. Young voters also showed these increases but their 2022 vote by mail rates were lower than among Nevada voters overall. Georgia, Kansas, and New Mexico showed increases between 2020 and 2022 in the share of votes cast early in person, but rates of early in person voting decreased among young voters in these states. In North Carolina, Nevada, and Ohio, the share of votes cast early in person decreased between 2020 and 2022, but declines were sharper among young voters than overall. This finding suggests that campaigns encouraging early in-person voting and vote by mail may not be reaching young audiences at the same rates as other groups, raising opportunities to expand non-Election Day voting in the 2024 cycle.
Figure 13a. Composition of Vote Methods among Gen Z and Millennial Voters, 2020-2022
Figure 13b. Composition of Vote Methods among 18-29 Year Old Voters, 2020-2022
Figure 13c. Composition of Vote Methods among All Voters, 2020-2022
What Happened 2022 Constituency Reports
Contributors
Lead authors. Kirsten Walters, Data Scientist; Ben Gross, Analyst
Project lead. Hillary Anderson, Director of Analytics; Haris Aqeel, Senior Advisor
Editor. Aaron Huertas, Communications Director
Graphics and data engineering. Kirsten Walters, Data Scientist
Catalist Executives. Michael Frias, CEO; Molly Norton, Chief Client Officer
Catalist Analytics Team. Janay Cody PhD, Senior Advisor for Data Equity; Jonathan Robinson, Director of Research
Catalist Data Team. Russ Rampersad, Chief Data Officer; Lauren O’Brien, Deputy Chief Data Officer; Dan Buttrey, Director of Data Acquisition
Many current and former staff members have also contributed to this report through their work building and maintaining the Catalist file. These insights would not be possible with the long-term investment Catalist has made in people and data since 2006.
Finally, Catalist is deeply grateful to the clients, partners and other community leaders who offered thoughtful review and feedback throughout the process, especially:
- EMILY’S List: Melissa Williams, Vice President Independent Expenditure
- EquisLabs: Carlos Odio, Co-Founder and Senior Vice President of Research; and team
- HIT Strategies: Terrance Woodbury, CEO and Co-Founder; and team
- NAACP in partnership with GSSA: Derrick Johnson, President and CEO NAACP; Dr. Albert Yates, Principal GSSA, Catalist board member
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund: Rachel Hall; Director, Data, Analytics and Research
- Strategic Victory Fund: Stephanie Schriock
What Happened™ Catalist © LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Proprietary data and analysis not for reproduction or republication.
Catalist’s actual providing of products and services shall be pursuant to the terms and conditions of a mutually executed Catalist Data License and Services Agreement.