What Happened™ in 2022
Constituency Reports: Women Voters
Women are a core component of the Democratic coalition — consistently composing a larger share of the electorate and expressing higher Democratic support levels than men across race, class, education, age and other factors. Both nationally and in states with highly contested 2022 Senate and Gubernatorial elections, women’s vote share declined slightly between the 2018 “blue wave” election and the 2022 midterms. However, in highly contested 2022 states women saw increases in Democratic support between the 2020 Presidential and 2022 midterm elections. Nationally over this same period, women saw a smaller decrease in Democratic support compared to men.
What Happened 2022 Report Series
Table 1. Share of Electorate and Democratic Support by Gender
| House: National | Senate/Gov: Highly Contested | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percent of Voters | Dem Support (Two-Way) | Percent of Voters | Dem Support (Two-Way) | |||||||||
| Group | 2018 | 2022 | 2018 to 2022 | Pres 2020 | 2022 | 2020 to 2022 | 2018 | 2022 | 2018 to 2022 | Pres 2020 | 2022 | 2020 to 2022 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | +0 | 52 | 49 | -3 | 100 | 100 | +0 | 50 | 51 | +1 |
| Women | 54 | 53 | -1 | 57 | 54 | -2 | 54 | 53 | -1 | 55 | 57 | +2 |
| Men | 46 | 47 | +1 | 47 | 43 | -4 | 46 | 47 | +1 | 45 | 45 | -1 |
When Republican-appointed justices on the Supreme Court overturned long-standing abortion rights, women voters, in particular, struck back, registering at relatively higher rates over the summer of 2022 and leading a coalition of voters who rejected an abortion ban in Kansas. These increased levels of engagement appear to have persisted throughout the cycle. Overall, Democratic support gains between the 2020 Presidential and 2022 midterm elections in states with highly contested Senate and Gubernatorial elections came almost entirely from increases in support among women without four-year college degrees, while women with four-year college degrees maintained their 2020 levels of support, which had grown from previous cycles during the Trump era. Democratic support trends also varied across generations, as Millennial and Gen Z women increased their support for Democrats from 2020 Biden/Harris levels while older generations declined in support.
The composition of women in the 2022 electorate shifted younger, slightly more college educated, and slightly more likely to be unmarried than previous midterm electorates. Millennial and Gen Z women represented an increasing share of women in the electorate while Silent and Greatest generations represented a decreasing share, contributing to the overall compositional changes.
This report examines in close detail levels and trends across recent election cycles in registration, vote share, support, and vote method among women voters, breaking out these topics by state and sub-constituency as relevant to illuminate key findings.
House vote and Heavily Contested vs. Less Contested Statewide Races
Normally, midterm elections involve a national swing in one direction, usually against an incumbent party. But in 2022, with Democrats overperformed in states with heavily contested statewide elections. Catalist’s analysis calculates modeled support for House races, which largely reflect national trends, as well as top-of-ticket statewide races for governor and Senate. Using the Cook Political Report's pre-election rating of races as Toss-Up or Lean, heavily contested races include 64 House races; Senate races in Arizona, Georgia, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and Gubernatorial races in Arizona, Georgia, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon and Wisconsin. Read more in the Catalist constituency report Data Guide.
Data Guide
Catalist’s What Happened 2022 Constituency Report Data Guide includes definitions, method and other important information about these reports.
Voter Registration
Overall, women register and vote at higher rates than men and the number of women registrants increased from 100 million in 2014 to 115 million in 2022. However, over this period women’s registration share decreased by half a percentage point, from 53.6% in 2014 to 52.9% in 2022, coinciding with increased registration rates generally from automatic voter registration policies as well as relatively high turnout elections. Generally, women’s registration share remained stable over the past several cycles and consistent relative to their population share.
We can decompose cross-cycle registration increases into new registrant gains and dropped registrant losses. The 2016 and 2020 Presidential election cycles especially saw spikes in new women registrants, but midterm election cycles also produced steady increases in registration among potential women voters. The number of new women registrants increased from 7.3 million in the 2014 midterm election cycle to 10.3 million in the 2018 cycle, before returning to 8.6 million in the 2022 cycle.
New registrants were somewhat offset by dropped registrants, which include registrants moving or passing away, as well as registrants who are removed from voter rolls. The number of women registrants dropped in each election cycle remained steady around 8 million between 2014 and 2022 and decreased slightly as a share of dropped registrants from 7.6% between 2012 and 2014 to 6.9% between 2020 and 2022.
Table 2. Trends in Voter Registration among Women, 2014-2022
| 2014 | 2016 | 2018 | 2020 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Women Registrants | 100.1M | 105.5M | 107.5M | 113.8M | 114.6M |
| Women Registrant Share | 53.6% | 53.4% | 53.3% | 53.0% | 52.9% |
| New Women Registrants | 7.3M | 13.6M | 10.3M | 14.1M | 8.6M |
| New Women Registrant Share | 7.3% | 12.9% | 9.6% | 12.4% | 7.5% |
| Dropped Women Registrants | 7.6M | 8.2M | 8.3M | 7.8M | 7.9M |
| Dropped Women Registrant Share | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% |
Women composed between 51% and 55% of each state’s registrants, with women composing an especially high percentage of registrants in states with large Black voting population shares due to Black women’s uniquely high rates of political participation. Overall, women’s registration share slightly decreased between 2014 and 2022, from 54% to 53% nationally and from 53% to 52% in states with highly contested 2022 Senate and Gubernatorial races.
Figure 1. Registration Share among Women by State, 2022
After Republican-appointed justices overturned long-standing abortion rights, Catalist’s national What Happened report found that there was a spike in women registrants relative to men, indicating that the decision played an important role in shaping the 2022 electorate. Normally, new registrations would be relatively evenly split between men and women, but women continued to register at somewhat higher rates than men throughout the cycle.
Figure 2. Percent of Voter Registrations by Women, 2022
The increase in women registrants was especially concentrated among young women. The share of women registrants composed of women under the age of 35 increased by 3.1 percentage points between the month preceding and the month following the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs. This uptick in registrations may have blunted the longer-term slight decline in registration share among women nationally.
General Election Trends
Vote Share
Nationally, women’s vote share decreased from 54% in 2018 to 53% in 2022; however, the 2018 “blue wave” was an unusual midterm election and women maintained approximately 53% vote share in the three midterms preceding 2018. States with highly contested 2022 Senate or Gubernatorial elections largely reflected national trends, either remaining steady or exhibiting small decreases in women’s vote share between the 2018 and 2022 midterms.
Among the highly contested 2022 states, only Michigan saw an increase in women’s vote share, from 53% in 2018 to 54% in 2022. Notably, Michigan’s 2022 midterm included a vote on a ballot proposal to codify reproductive rights and access to abortion, which may have contributed to the increase in women’s vote share in that state.
Figure 3. Women's Share of the Electorate Nationally and in Heavily Contested States, 2014-2022
While there are differences in women’s vote share across states, there is much less variation within states over time. Similar to registration share, women composed the largest share of the 2022 electorate in states with large Black vote shares, a trend we address further when breaking down Democratic support among women by race.
Figure 4. Women’s Share of the Electorate by State, 2022
Support
Nationally, two-party Democratic support among women voters decreased from 57% in the 2020 Presidential election to 54% for 2022 House races. By contrast, in states with highly contested 2022 Senate or Gubernatorial contests, Democratic support increased from 55% in the 2020 Presidential election to 57% in 2022 statewide races. However, this aggregate finding masks variations in support trends within some highly contested states. Increases in Democratic support among women voters from 2020 were especially large for the Michigan and Wisconsin Gubernatorial races and the Pennsylvania and New Hampshire Senate races. Meanwhile, Democratic candidates lost support among women voters relative to 2020 in the Georgia and Nevada Gubernatorial races as well as the Nevada Senate race. It is worth noting that these races included both support gains and losses in contests where the Democratic nominee was a woman.
Figure 5. Women's Democratic Support Nationally and in Highly Contested States, 2020-2022
Vote Share and Support by Demographic Subgroups
To explore differences within the women’s electorate, we consider vote share and Democratic support trends by age, race, marital status, urbanity, and education.
We encourage readers to refer to the Data Guide associated with each constituency report to explore more about how support is modeled. When interpreting two-way Democratic support, it is important to note that shifts from election to election can result from individuals switching their vote from one party to another as well as compositional changes to the electorate, including Republican or Democratic voters in a subgroup turning out in different numbers from election to election.
While vote share numbers come with relatively high confidence, support numbers come with more uncertainty, particularly at the state and local level when looking at subgroups of women by age or race results in small populations, so support numbers are shared here at an aggregated level.
The composition of the women’s electorate nationally largely mirrors that in states with highly contested Senate or Gubernatorial elections in 2022. There are a few exceptions: in highly contested states, the women’s electorate contains higher shares of white voters, lower shares of urban voters, and lower shares of voters with four-year college degrees than nationally. These differences are relatively minor, however, and so for each demographic sub-constituency we focus on the shape of the women’s electorate nationally. By contrast, we show Democratic support changes for each demographic sub-constituency both nationally and in highly contested states.
Age
Young women played a significant role in the Democratic victories of 2022 and helped stem losses nationally. Younger women voters grew substantially as a share of the electorate since 2014 with Gen Z and Millennial women comprising 26% of all women voters nationally in 2022, up 14 percentage points from 2014. Gen X women also slightly increased as a share of the women’s electorate between 2014 and 2022, while members of the Baby Boomer, Silent, and Greatest generations decreased a share of the women’s electorate over this period.
Figure 6. Shape of the Women’s Electorate by Generation, 2014-2022
Nationally, women’s turnout was 4 million votes lower in the 2022 midterms compared to the 2018 “blue wave” election. However, in highly contested states the number of women voters in the 2022 midterms closely paralleled 2018 figures and for younger age cohorts even exceeded 2018 levels.
Figure 7a. Women Voters in the 2022 Midterms by Birth Year – Nationally
Figure 7b. Women Voters in the 2022 Midterms by Birth Year – Highly Contested States 1Note that Figure 7b has a different y-axis scale than Figure 7a to illustrate variation across midterm years within highly contested 2022 states.
Nationally, Democratic support increased among Millennial and Gen Z women by 2 percentage points between the 2020 Presidential election and the 2022 midterms, and over this same period decreased progressively among older generations with Gen X, Baby Boomer, and Silent/Greatest generation women showing Democratic support declines of 2, 3, and 4 percentage points, respectively. By contrast, in highly contested states, all generations of women voters showed at least a 2 percentage point increase in Democratic support between the 2020 Biden/Harris and 2022 Senate and Gubernatorial races. However, support changes were not positive in all highly contested races. Nevada, for example, had drops in support in all generations except for the Silent/Greatest generational cohort which increased their democratic support by 2 percentage points. Still, support levels in Nevada among the youngest generation of women voters remained at a higher absolute level of support by as much as 10 points compared to older generations despite slight decreases from 2020.
Table 3. Democratic Support Among Women Voters by Generation
| House: National | Senate/Gov: Highly Contested | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pres 2020 | 2022 | Diff | Pres 2020 | 2022 | Diff | |
| Gen Z / Millennials | 65 | 67 | +2 | 63 | 66 | +3 |
| Gen X | 54 | 52 | -2 | 53 | 55 | +2 |
| Baby Boomers | 53 | 49 | -4 | 51 | 53 | +2 |
| Silent / Greatest | 50 | 46 | -4 | 48 | 51 | +3 |
Race
For more detailed analysis within racial groups, see our constituency reports on Black, Latino, and AAPI voters. Women’s vote share is slightly higher than men’s across races with women of color voting at 4-9 percentage points higher than men of color and white women voting 2-3 percentage points more than white men. The difference between men’s and women’s vote share decreased slightly between 2018 and 2022 with all races showing decreased women’s vote share by about 1 percentage point.
Figure 8. Shape of the Womens' Electorate by Race, 2014-2022
Across racial groups, women continue to support Democratic candidates at higher rates than men. Within each racial group, trends among women largely followed trends highlighted in each constituency report. Black women remain by far the most Democratic-leaning of any racial group. Their Democratic support levels decreased nationally from 93% in the 2020 Presidential election to 91% for 2022 House races but remained steady at 94% in between 2020 and 2022 in highly contested 2022 states. White women are the least Democratic-leaning racial group among all women. However, their national Democratic support remained steady between the 2020 Presidential election and 2022 House races and in states with highly contested 2022 Senate and Gubernatorial elections their Democratic support share increased from 46% support for Biden/Harris in 2020 to 50% support for Democratic candidates in contested 2022 statewide races. AAPI women nationally had the largest decrease in Democratic support from 70% Biden/Harris support in 2020 to 64% support for Democratic House candidates in 2022. AAPI women in highly contested states saw a smaller decline of 3 percentage points, but started from a lower 2020 baseline resulting in the same 2022 Democratic support level as AAPI women nationally. Latina women nationally slightly increased in Democratic support levels from Biden/Haris in 2020 to 2022 Democratic House candidates while Latina women in 2022 highly contested states stayed constant in their levels of support between 2020 and 2022.
Table 4. Democratic Support Among Women Voters by Race
| House: National | Senate/Gov: Highly Contested | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pres 2020 | 2022 | Diff | Pres 2020 | 2022 | Diff | |
| White | 47 | 47 | +0 | 46 | 50 | +4 |
| Black | 93 | 91 | -2 | 94 | 94 | +0 |
| Hispanic/Latino | 66 | 67 | +1 | 66 | 66 | +0 |
| AAPI | 70 | 64 | -6 | 68 | 64 | -4 |
Marital Status
Single women increased as a share of the electorate by 3 percentage points to 25% and decreased in Democratic support by 2 percentage points, to 62%. Single men saw similar declines in electorate share and Democratic support.
Single women increased as a share of the women’s electorate by 6 percentage points from 2014 with increases in the share of single women in each age category except for 65+. Single 18-29 year old women voters were 43% of all 18-29 year old voters in 2022, an increase of 12 percentage points compared to 18-29 year old women’s electorate than in 2014, but up only 2 percentage points from their share in 2018. We are confident that changes by marital status do not solely reflect participation shifts among young women voters, because only around a third of single women voters fell into the Millennial and Gen Z categories in 2022.
Figure 9. Shape of the Women's Electorate by Marital Status, 2014-2022
In highly contested states, single women were the most Democratic group by gender and marital status, supporting Democrats at 65% while married women supported Democrats at 49%, a 1-2 percentage point increase in Democratic support from both groups over 2020 Biden/Harris support levels. At 52% support in highly contested states, single men’s support for Democrats in 2022 states was considerably lower than single women’s – by 13% – but somewhat higher than married women by 3%.
Table 5. Democratic Support Among Women Voters by Marital Status
| House: National | Senate/Gov: Highly Contested | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pres 2020 | 2022 | Diff | Pres 2020 | 2022 | Diff | |
| Single Women | 64 | 62 | -2 | 63 | 65 | +2 |
| Married Women | 50 | 47 | -3 | 48 | 49 | +1 |
Urbanity
All groups by gender and marital status grew more suburban and urban since 2014 at equal rates. Vote shares are increasingly suburban, decreasingly rural, and slightly decreasing or staying constant in urban areas. The shares of women and men by urbanity are extremely close, with urban and suburban women making up 1 percentage point more of the women’s electorate compared to urban and suburban men and 2 percentage points less of the rural vote compared to rural men.
Figure 10. Shape of the Women's Electorate by Urbanity, 2014-2022
Support changes, on the other hand, were not equal. Nationally, urban women saw a negligible change in Democratic support; whereas, suburban and rural women saw a 3% decrease in support. Suburban women, the largest share of women voters by urbanity at 59%, supported Democrats at 55% in 2022. Married suburban women showed slightly larger decreases in support than single suburban women compared to 2020 and were considerably less supportive – 49% Democratic support compared to 62% support from single suburban women. Men’s support for Democrats was about 10 percentage points lower than women’s support in all urbanities, with the largest drop from 2020 occurring within suburban men who decreased their support by 5% to supporting Democrats at 44% in 2022.
However, in highly contested states in 2022, women in all urbanities and marital statuses saw an increase in support. Single women in highly contested states increased their support by about 2% in all urbanities while married women increased their support by 2 percentage points in urban areas and 1 percentage point in suburban and rural areas.
Table 6: Democratic Support Among Women Voters by Urbanity
| House: National | Senate/Gov: Highly Contested | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pres 2020 | 2022 | Diff | Pres 2020 | 2022 | Diff | |
| Urban | 76 | 76 | +0 | 74 | 76 | +2 |
| Suburban | 58 | 55 | -3 | 58 | 60 | +2 |
| Rural | 37 | 34 | -3 | 39 | 40 | +1 |
Education
The share of women voters with four-year college degrees grew slightly between 2014 and 2022, both nationally and in highly contested states. Nationally, in 2022, 41% of women voters had four-year college degrees. In highly contested states this figure was slightly lower, at 39%.
Figure 11. Shape of the Women's Electorate by Education, 2014-2022
Nationally, both college and non-college educated women voters decreased in support from 2020 to 2022 by 2-3 percentage points. In highly contested states, college educated women stayed constant in their support for Democrats while non-college educated women increased in Democratic support by three percentage points to 54%. This support gain came from both married and single non-college educated women. Though college educated women did not meaningfully change in their level of support from 2020, they were at higher absolute levels of support than non-college women in both 2020 and 2022.
Table 7. Democratic Support Among Women Voters by Education
| House: National | Senate/Gov: Highly Contested | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pres 2020 | 2022 | Diff | Pres 2020 | 2022 | Diff | |
| Non-College | 53 | 50 | -3 | 51 | 54 | +3 |
| College | 63 | 61 | -2 | 62 | 62 | +0 |
Primary Participation
Primary participation can sometimes indicate early interest in an election and is another important touch point for campaigns and organizations to engage voters. It is important to note, however, that interpreting primary participation requires attention to each state’s specific electoral context. The presence of competitive primaries may boost participation, whereas uncontested primaries may not motivate turnout. While contested primaries can reveal important clues regarding enthusiasm for the general election, an absence of an active primary usually doesn’t warrant concern for general election enthusiasm.
Women’s primary vote share in 2022 largely matched 2018 levels, differing in most states by less than 1 percentage point. Among the highly contested 2022 states, one notable exception was Kansas, where women’s primary vote share was 3 percentage points higher in 2022 than in 2018. The Kansas 2022 primary election had a ballot measure directly addressing the right to an abortion.
Figure 12. Women’s Share of the Primary Electorate Nationally and in Highly Contested States, 2014-2022
Vote Method
The 2020 general election was anomalous because it unfolded during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, meaning that vote by mail rates were exceptionally high. Rates of voting by mail or early in-person decreased between 2020 and 2022 nationally and in highly contested states. Among the highly contested states that report disaggregated counts of vote by mail and early in person voting, some saw countervailing trends. In Nevada, vote by mail rates increased between 2020 and 2022 overall. Meanwhile, Georgia, Kansas, and New Mexico increased their rates of early in-person voting over this same period. Shifts among women in the share of votes cast using each method closely paralleled shifts among all voters.
Figure 13a. Composition of Vote Methods among Women Voters, 2020-2022
Figure 13b. Composition of Vote Methods among All Voters, 2020-2022
What Happened 2022 Constituency Reports
Contributors
Lead authors. Kirsten Walters, Data Scientist; Ben Gross, Analyst
Project lead. Hillary Anderson, Director of Analytics; Haris Aqeel, Senior Advisor
Editor. Aaron Huertas, Communications Director
Graphics and data engineering. Kirsten Walters, Data Scientist
Catalist Executives. Michael Frias, CEO; Molly Norton, Chief Client Officer
Catalist Analytics Team. Janay Cody PhD, Senior Advisor for Data Equity; Jonathan Robinson, Director of Research
Catalist Data Team. Russ Rampersad, Chief Data Officer; Lauren O’Brien, Deputy Chief Data Officer; Dan Buttrey, Director of Data Acquisition
Many current and former staff members have also contributed to this report through their work building and maintaining the Catalist file. These insights would not be possible with the long-term investment Catalist has made in people and data since 2006.
Finally, Catalist is deeply grateful to the clients, partners and other community leaders who offered thoughtful review and feedback throughout the process, especially:
- EMILY’S List: Melissa Williams, Vice President Independent Expenditure
- EquisLabs: Carlos Odio, Co-Founder and Senior Vice President of Research; and team
- HIT Strategies: Terrance Woodbury, CEO and Co-Founder; and team
- NAACP in partnership with GSSA: Derrick Johnson, President and CEO NAACP; Dr. Albert Yates, Principal GSSA, Catalist board member
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund: Rachel Hall; Director, Data, Analytics and Research
- Strategic Victory Fund: Stephanie Schriock
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