Posts by Aaron Huertas
Biden is getting a big bounce with Hispanics
Harry Enten | May 29, 2021 Hispanic voters were one of President Joe Biden’s biggest weaknesses in the 2020 election. Although sources differ on his exact margin, Biden’s advantage with Hispanics was the worst for a Democratic presidential nominee since 2004 — even as he had the strongest performance overall for a Democrat since 2008. A look…
Read MoreDon’t Sleep on Asian American Voters
The bloc’s power is growing fast. That could be bad news for the GOP. RONALD BROWNSTEIN | May 20, 2021 When Kamala Harris, Hillary Clinton, and other prominent Democrats appeared online at a major fundraiser last night, they spotlighted one of the least discussed lessons of the 2020 election: Asian Americans are poised for a…
Read MoreThe 2020 Election Was a Breakthrough Moment For Young Voters
Charlotte Alter | May 18, 2021 You probably don’t think of 2020 as a generational change election. It resulted in the presidency of Joe Biden, the oldest man ever to take the oath of office. The dramatic week of vote counting, and the subsequent attempts by a sitting President of the United States to subvert…
Read MoreNew data helps explain Trump’s gains among Latino voters in 2020
Democrats can’t afford to take Latino voters for granted. Nicole Narea | May 19, 2021 Conventional wisdom long dictated that if Latino voters show up to vote, they will overwhelmingly support Democrats. But a recent report with more details on the 2020 election results suggests the reality is more complicated. It was clear after the election that Trump…
Read MoreA new analysis uncovers the demographic shifts that led to Joe Biden’s victory
Suburban whites moved left; young and non-white voters showed up May 14, 2021 MUCH ATTENTION has been paid to Donald Trump’s surprise performance in last year’s presidential election. The former president performed much better than the pre-election polls expected, especially in states with high concentrations of Hispanics or white voters without college degrees. But given…
Read MoreYes, you can generally trust issue polling — but there’s a catch
A new study of polls on hundreds of state ballot initiatives reveals no bias towards liberals or conservatives, but rather a consistent underestimation of the status quo G. Elliott Morris | May 11, 2021 There is a status quo bias in American politics. Most people think of the present as the ideal, and when the…
Read MoreTrump’s improvement with non-White voters in 2020 was important — but not as important as the turnout surge
Philip Bump | May 10, 2021 Since polls closed Nov. 3, there’s been a lot of focus on the extent to which Black and Hispanic voters seem to have been more open to President Donald Trump than they were in 2016. Preliminary exit polls showed Trump doing better with non-White voters than he had four…
Read MoreThe Three Big Drivers in 2020
Taegan Goddard | May 10, 2021 Electoral data analysis firm Catalist released a major study of the demographic trends that shaped 2020 election: Biden “made significant gains among white voters compared to 2016, particularly among white college and white suburban voters.” Biden actually performed better with non-college White voters than Hillary 2016 and Obama 2012, but Trump…
Read MoreYoung, diverse voters fueled Biden victory over Trump
Reid Wilson | May 10, 2021 A diverse coalition of young and new voters propelled President Biden to victory in November, according to a major new study of the 2020 electorate, while former President Trump made inroads among Hispanic voters in key states. The report, from the Democratic data analytics firm Catalist, found the most diverse electorate in American history…
Read MoreNew Voters Helped Propel Biden in 2020
Amy Walter | May 10, 2021 We know that 2020 produced the largest voter turnout in modern history. But, for a detailed understanding of who voted—and how they voted—we had to wait until state voter files were updated and analyzed. This week, Catalist, a Democratic data analytics firm, released their first deep dive into the 2020 election…
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