Posts by Aaron Huertas
Just How Many Swing Voters Are There?
Catalist, a Democratic data firm, recently found that the shifts in vote margin from 2012 to 2016 in many swing states were predominantly driven by changes in vote choice rather than changes in turnout. According to their analysis, the change in vote margin in the three key states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin could mostly be explained by people shifting which party they voted for, rather than by changes in turnout.
Read MoreThe debate over swing voters versus mobilizing the base, explained
Yair Ghitza of the Democratic data firm Catalist estimates that while Democrats did make significant turnout-related gains in 2018, about 89 percent of their improvement vote margin is attributable to swing voting.
Read MoreDemocrats, Stop Obsessing Over Base Turnout. Remember 2018?
Lanae Erickson | September 10, 2019 For years, left-wing candidates and pundits have complained that the big problem with the Democratic Party is that it just doesn’t energize progressives. The argument goes like this: If you nominate a self-described socialist or a true champion of far-left policies, you’ll mobilize a hidden treasure trove of progressive voters who…
Read MoreWant to beat Trump in 2020? Register people to vote.
Greg Sargent | July 9, 2019 A new Washington Post/ABC News poll released over the weekend pointed toward a scenario in which President Trump could win reelection despite his deep and enduring unpopularity. The poll showed that all of the top-tier Democratic candidates defeat Trump in head-to-head matchups by sizable margins among all U.S. adults. But among registered voters,…
Read MoreBrace for a Voter-Turnout Tsunami
In a recent paper, the Democratic voter-targeting firm Catalist projected that about 156 million people could vote in 2020, an enormous increase from the 139 million who cast ballots in 2016.
Read MoreRumblings from Trump’s base could shape Democrats’ choice for 2020
Detailed new research by the Democratic voter-targeting firm Catalist found that the party’s big gains in the 2018 congressional election were fueled not only by unusually high turnout among voters sympathetic to the party, but also by larger-than-expected defections from the GOP among voters who had backed Trump two years earlier.
Read MoreHere’s What Powered the Democratic Win in 2018
Yair Ghitza at Catalist has a detailed look at the 2018 election that’s been updated with lots of new data. One of the things he looks at is the long-running question of how important turnout is compared to changing minds.
Read MoreA blueprint for Democratic victory in the South
According to Catalist, a progressive data firm, the campaign’s focus on voters of color gave Abrams huge support with black Georgians in 2018, and they turned out at or near presidential levels, with Abrams winning 95 percent of their votes. Hispanic and Asian turnout, although a much smaller share of the electorate, also looked more like a presidential election than a midterm. In 2014, they made up only 3 percent of the electorate, but in 2018, they doubled to 6 percent of the total electorate. Abrams won these groups by margins of 40 and 31 points respectively.
Read MoreThe demographic surges that spurred 2018′s heavy turnout
Philip Bump | November 13, 2018 On any Election Day, the first analyses of turnout are anecdotal. Long lines at particular places. Commentary from poll workers about how the turnout looks relative to prior years. Stories of unexpectedly long lines or the unexpected absence of same. As with any similar reporting, caution is warranted in…
Read MoreWhy the 2018 Midterms May Have Been Bluer Than You Think
The wave looks like it was real, even in places where the candidates didn’t win. Andrew Gelman | November 12, 2018 What can we really learn from what happened in the 2018 midterm elections? When we talk about election results, we’re always discussing them on three levels: their direct political consequences, their implications for future…
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