Posts Tagged ‘2016 Election’
Why did Trump win? More whites – and fewer blacks – actually voted.
Bernard L. Fraga, Sean McElwee, Jesse Rhodes, and Brian Schnaffer | May 8, 2017 Why did Trump win — and Clinton lose — the 2016 U.S. presidential election? That’s been debated widely, to understate the case. Nominees include each campaign’s ground game, messaging, FBI Director James B. Comey’s last-minute letter to Congress, and defections from the “Obama coalition.” Here, we offer new data to…
Read MoreWho’s voting early? Latino turnout is surging, but white turnout is, too.
Bernard L. Fraga and Brian Schaffner | November 4, 2016 By most accounts, Hillary Clinton’s path to victory relies on substantial turnout among black and Latino voters. And while early voting numbers so far appear to favor the Democrats, reports in recent days have suggested that although Latino participation may be up, African American turnout may be lower than in 2012.…
Read MoreThere are more white voters than people think. That’s good news for Trump.
Nate Cohn | June 9, 2016 One of the biggest reasons Donald Trump is considered to be a long shot to win the presidency is the diversity of the country. As Joe Scarborough of MSNBC put it, “There are not enough white voters in America for Donald Trump to win while getting routed among minorities.” But a growing body…
Read MoreIs Traditional Polling Underselling Donald Trump’s True Strength?
Nate Cohn | May 17, 2016 Hillary Clinton’s lead in general election polls has faded over the last few weeks. One reason might be that a growing number of Republicans are coalescing around Donald Trump’s candidacy. Another part of the explanation? Fewer live-interview telephone polls. So far this year, live-interview telephone surveys have tended to…
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