Posts Tagged ‘Persuasion’
The Pandemic Hasn’t Changed Voters’ Minds About Trump
Education remains the most important dividing line in America. Ronald Brownstein | May 21, 2020 For all the focus on the gender gap, the diploma divide over Donald Trump is looming as an even greater factor in the 2020 presidential race—just as it was in 2016. Amid the coronavirus outbreak, women generally express more financial…
Read MoreJust How Many Swing Voters Are There?
Catalist, a Democratic data firm, recently found that the shifts in vote margin from 2012 to 2016 in many swing states were predominantly driven by changes in vote choice rather than changes in turnout. According to their analysis, the change in vote margin in the three key states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin could mostly be explained by people shifting which party they voted for, rather than by changes in turnout.
Read MoreThe debate over swing voters versus mobilizing the base, explained
Yair Ghitza of the Democratic data firm Catalist estimates that while Democrats did make significant turnout-related gains in 2018, about 89 percent of their improvement vote margin is attributable to swing voting.
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