Posts Tagged ‘Turnout’
High turnout among his base is unlikely to save Trump
Turnout among all groups tends to rise and fall together. Robert Griffin | September 4, 2020 The lead that former vice president Joe Biden has held over President Trump since he became the presumptive Democratic nominee — confirmed this past week in a number of high-quality post-convention polls — has been almost shockingly stable, given the pandemic,…
Read MoreDo Democrats Need a Progressive to Excite the Base?
Most notably, for all the talk of how a Democratic nominee must drive voter turnout, the Democrats who flipped seats in 2018 did so primarily by winning back votes rather than by turning out new voters. According to the data firm Catalist, even though there were 14.4 million new voters in 2018 who supported Democrats by a 60 percent to percent margin, changing voter choice accounted for 4.5 percent of the 5.0 percent shift in Democrat’s favor from 2016 to 2018. In other words, Trump voters who supported Democrats in 2018 were 90 percent responsible for the blue wave while increased turnout was 10 percent responsible. Why shouldn’t Democrats try to follow the same path to success in 2020?
Read MoreWhy Political Pundits Are Obsessed with Hidden Moderates
A recent study by the data firm Catalist suggests that liberals made up a disproportionate share of the turnout increase, even in Repubican-leaning and swing districts. The study found that the 2018 electorate looked much more like the electorate in a presidential year than a typical midterm (in other words, more liberal) and that “young voters and voters of color, particularly Latinx voters, were a substantially larger share of the electorate than in past midterms.”
Read MoreDemocrats, Stop Obsessing Over Base Turnout. Remember 2018?
Lanae Erickson | September 10, 2019 For years, left-wing candidates and pundits have complained that the big problem with the Democratic Party is that it just doesn’t energize progressives. The argument goes like this: If you nominate a self-described socialist or a true champion of far-left policies, you’ll mobilize a hidden treasure trove of progressive voters who…
Read MoreWant to beat Trump in 2020? Register people to vote.
Greg Sargent | July 9, 2019 A new Washington Post/ABC News poll released over the weekend pointed toward a scenario in which President Trump could win reelection despite his deep and enduring unpopularity. The poll showed that all of the top-tier Democratic candidates defeat Trump in head-to-head matchups by sizable margins among all U.S. adults. But among registered voters,…
Read MoreBrace for a Voter-Turnout Tsunami
In a recent paper, the Democratic voter-targeting firm Catalist projected that about 156 million people could vote in 2020, an enormous increase from the 139 million who cast ballots in 2016.
Read MoreThe demographic surges that spurred 2018′s heavy turnout
Philip Bump | November 13, 2018 On any Election Day, the first analyses of turnout are anecdotal. Long lines at particular places. Commentary from poll workers about how the turnout looks relative to prior years. Stories of unexpectedly long lines or the unexpected absence of same. As with any similar reporting, caution is warranted in…
Read MoreWhy the 2018 Midterms May Have Been Bluer Than You Think
The wave looks like it was real, even in places where the candidates didn’t win. Andrew Gelman | November 12, 2018 What can we really learn from what happened in the 2018 midterm elections? When we talk about election results, we’re always discussing them on three levels: their direct political consequences, their implications for future…
Read MoreThe 2018 electorate was older, whiter, and better educated than in 2016
Democrats hit some of their GOTV targets but missed others. Matthew Yglesias | November 12, 2018 A picture of the people who voted in the 2018 midterms is starting to emerge, and it offers a template for who Democrats will need to reach ahead of 2020. Exit polls found that voters were younger and less…
Read MoreThe early vote suggests minority turnout will be high in 2018, but so will turnout among whites
Bernard Fraga and Brian Schaffner | November 1, 2018 The expansion of early voting has not only made it more convenient for Americans to cast their ballots, but it has also become a tempting source of data to try to predict what might happen once the dust has settled on election night. In 2016, our analysis of the early vote was fairly…
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