Posts Tagged ‘Demographics’
How young black voters could break Biden — and why Democrats are worried
Police brutality has spurred young African Americans to take to the streets. But it’s far from clear they’ll go to the polls. ELENA SCHNEIDER and LAURA BARRÓN-LÓPEZ | 06/05/2020 In late January, Black Lives Matter commissioned eight focus groups of young black voters in swing states to drill down on a problem for Democrats since Barack Obama…
Read MoreBlack voters are also ‘suburban’ voters
Jonathan Capehart | April 9, 2020 There are words and phrases used as shorthand in politics and journalism that are meant to paint an enormous picture in the mind of readers and voters. “Urban voters” is synonymous with African Americans. “Working-class voters,” “blue-collar voters,” “upper-middle-class voters” and “suburban voters” all conjure up the image of white…
Read MoreLGBTQ voters turned out in record numbers on Super Tuesday
That’s why the Human Rights Campaign began working with data analytics firm Catalist in 2016 to identify 57 million “equality voters” who care deeply about LGBTQ equality.
Read MoreAre Blue-Collar White Women Trump’s Red Wall?
They’re the one group whose support for impeachment isn’t growing. Anne Kim | October 25, 2019 Despite a nonstop onslaught of fresh and damning revelations about his misconduct in office, President Donald Trump has so far maintained his core supporters’ loyalty. As of the start of this week, Trump’s average approval rating holds at 42 percent—only slightly…
Read MoreBrace for a Voter-Turnout Tsunami
In a recent paper, the Democratic voter-targeting firm Catalist projected that about 156 million people could vote in 2020, an enormous increase from the 139 million who cast ballots in 2016.
Read MoreA blueprint for Democratic victory in the South
According to Catalist, a progressive data firm, the campaign’s focus on voters of color gave Abrams huge support with black Georgians in 2018, and they turned out at or near presidential levels, with Abrams winning 95 percent of their votes. Hispanic and Asian turnout, although a much smaller share of the electorate, also looked more like a presidential election than a midterm. In 2014, they made up only 3 percent of the electorate, but in 2018, they doubled to 6 percent of the total electorate. Abrams won these groups by margins of 40 and 31 points respectively.
Read MoreThe demographic surges that spurred 2018′s heavy turnout
Philip Bump | November 13, 2018 On any Election Day, the first analyses of turnout are anecdotal. Long lines at particular places. Commentary from poll workers about how the turnout looks relative to prior years. Stories of unexpectedly long lines or the unexpected absence of same. As with any similar reporting, caution is warranted in…
Read MoreThe 2018 electorate was older, whiter, and better educated than in 2016
Democrats hit some of their GOTV targets but missed others. Matthew Yglesias | November 12, 2018 A picture of the people who voted in the 2018 midterms is starting to emerge, and it offers a template for who Democrats will need to reach ahead of 2020. Exit polls found that voters were younger and less…
Read MoreThe early vote suggests minority turnout will be high in 2018, but so will turnout among whites
Bernard Fraga and Brian Schaffner | November 1, 2018 The expansion of early voting has not only made it more convenient for Americans to cast their ballots, but it has also become a tempting source of data to try to predict what might happen once the dust has settled on election night. In 2016, our analysis of the early vote was fairly…
Read MoreWhy did Trump win? More whites – and fewer blacks – actually voted.
Bernard L. Fraga, Sean McElwee, Jesse Rhodes, and Brian Schnaffer | May 8, 2017 Why did Trump win — and Clinton lose — the 2016 U.S. presidential election? That’s been debated widely, to understate the case. Nominees include each campaign’s ground game, messaging, FBI Director James B. Comey’s last-minute letter to Congress, and defections from the “Obama coalition.” Here, we offer new data to…
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